Understanding New Zealand 3: Who Voted Advance NZ in 2020?

The Advance NZ Party was one of the most interesting phenomena of the 2020 General Election. We at VJM Publishing were among the first to document the rise of Billy TK and Jami-Lee Ross’s populist vehicle. Ultimately, they won 28,429 party votes, giving them 1.0% of the total, and did not win an electorate seat, and therefore failed to get into Parliament.

In short, most Advance NZ voters were poorly-educated Boomers.

Variable	Advance NZ vote 2020
No qualifications	0.65
Level 1 certificate	0.74
Level 2 certificate	0.71
Level 3 certificate	-0.04
Level 4 certificate	0.78
Level 5 diploma	0.56
Level 6 diploma	-0.12
Bachelor’s degree	-0.71
Honours degree	-0.63
Master’s degree	-0.66
Doctorate	-0.54

There were very strong positive correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and belonging to any of the three lowest educational groups. The correlation between having no academic qualifications and voting Advance NZ in 2020 was 0.65, and with having only NZQA Level 1 or 2 the correlations were even more strongly positive.

The correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and having a university degree, by contrast, were all -0.54 or greater. The correlation between having a Bachelor’s degree in particular and voting Advance NZ in 2020 was -0.71, revealing that very, very few people from this demographic found any appeal in AdvanceNZ.

Advance NZ actually had the most poorly educated voters of any party. Even ALCP, New Zealand First, ONE Party and Vision NZ voters were more likely to have advanced past the lowest NZQA levels, as well as being more likely to have a university degree.

The obvious explanation for this is that the Advance NZ campaign appealed specifically to the gullible and easily manipulated. Those capable of telling truth from lies were generally aware that Billy TK and Jami-Lee Ross were charlatans.

Variable	Advance NZ vote 2020
20-24 years old	-0.43
25-29 years old	-0.47
30-34 years old	-0.55
35-39 years old	-0.65
40-44 years old	-0.49
45-49 years old	-0.24
50-54 years old	-0.00
55-59 years old	0.28
60-64 years old	0.30
65-69 years old	0.33
70-74 years old	0.29
75-79 years old	0.22
80-84 years old	0.11
85+ years old	-0.04

Boomers supported Advance NZ more than any other demographic did. All of the age brackets in the Boomer generation (i.e. those aged between 55 and 74 years old) had a significant positive correlation with voting Advance NZ in 2020. By contrast, all of the age brackets under 50 years of age had a significant negative correlation with voting Advance NZ in 2020.

It may seem strange that support for Advance NZ was so strong among Boomers but much weaker among those in older generations. The reason for this is because Advance NZ mostly recruited online, and therefore recruited many of the “terminally online” Boomers that have voted for anti-Establishment parties in other countries.

The reason for this is probably education. There are a lot of Boomers in New Zealand who are poorly educated but who lack the humility to understand that. As such, they are especially vulnerable to hysteria, especially of the religious kind that Billy TK was pushing.

Variable	Advance NZ vote 2020
No religion	0.33
Buddhism	-0.69
Christianity	-0.29
Hinduism	-0.54
Islam	-0.55
Judaism	-0.49
Maori religions	0.63
Spiritualism and New Age	0.44

Perhaps surprisingly, then, given the correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being poorly-educated and old, and given Billy TK’s preacher’s persona, there were relatively few Christians among Advance NZ voters. The correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being Christian was, in fact, significantly negative, at -0.29.

There was a significant negative correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being any of Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, Muslim or Jewish. By contrast, there were significant positive correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and having no religion (0.33), being a Spiritualist or New Ager (0.44) or following one of the Maori religions (0.63).

What explains these correlations is that most Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, Muslims and Jews are foreign-born, and most Spiritualists, New Agers or followers of Maori religions are New Zealand-born, and Advance NZ voters were very likely to be New Zealand-born.

Variable	Advance NZ vote 2020
New Zealand-born	0.72

Advance NZ had the highest proportion of New Zealand-born voters of any party in 2020, even more than the ALCP. The main reason for this is probably that Advance NZ had two Maori leaders. As New Zealand First has shown for a few decades, foreign-born voters don’t like to vote for Maori leaders.

Given that the immigration system favours young and well-educated people, it follows naturally that a party with a poorly-educated and old demographic will have disproportionately many New Zealand-born voters.

Variable	Advance NZ vote 2020
ACC or private work insurance	0.78
NZ Super or Veteran’s pension	0.33
Jobseeker Support	0.55
Sole Parent Support	0.49
Supported Living Payment	0.32
Student Allowance	-0.33

There are significant positive correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being on any main benefit apart from the Student Allowance. The most extreme was between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being on ACC or private work insurance, which was 0.78. There was a significant negative correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being on the Student Allowance, however.

These correlations can be easily explained by degree of disenfranchisement.

As previous analyses in this volume have shown, people who receive the Student Allowance recipients are unlike other beneficiaries.

People on the Jobseeker Support, the Sole Parent Support or the Supported Living Payment are some of the most disenfranchised in all of society. People on the Student Allowance, by contrast, tend to be from middle-class families, as it’s mostly middle-class families who produce the sort of children who aspire to tertiary education.

As a result, Student Allowance recipients often vote like highly educated and highly productive people, despite being beneficiaries, who are usually neither. This explains why there is a significant negative correlation between receiving a Student Allowance and voting Advance NZ in 2020, at the same time as a significant positive correlation between receiving any other benefit and voting Advance NZ in 2020.

Variable	Voting Advance NZ 2020
Voting Labour 2020	-0.19
Voting National 2020	-0.13
Voting Greens 2020	-0.36
Voting ACT 2020	0.02
Voting New Zealand First 2020	0.71
Voting New Conservative 2020	0.12
Voting TOP 2020	-0.36
Voting Maori Party 2020	0.47
Voting Sustainable NZ 2020	-0.17
Voting ALCP 2020	0.68
Voting TEA Party 2020	-0.47
Voting Heartland NZ 2020	-0.01
Voting Social Credit 2020	0.30
Voting NZ Outdoors Party 2020	0.51
Voting ONE Party 2020	0.39
Voting Vision NZ Party 2020	0.34

The outsider nature of the Advance NZ movement can be easily seen from the fact that voting Advance NZ in 2020 was not significantly positively correlated with voting for any of the four major parties in 2020. Voting Advance NZ in 2020 and voting Greens in 2020 was significantly negatively correlated, at -0.36. The only positive correlation of these four was between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and voting ACT in 2020, which was not significant at 0.02.

These four correlations underline the extent to which Advance NZ was a protest movement that looked for votes from otherwise disenfranchised people.

Supporting this conclusion are the strong correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and voting for any of the other traditionally protest parties. With voting NZ First in 2020 the correlation was 0.71, with voting ALCP in 2020 it was 0.68, with voting NZ Outdoors Party in 2020 it was 0.51 and with voting Maori Party in 2020 it was 0.47.

The parties whose voters were least like Advance NZ voters were the highly urbanised ones. The correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and voting for another party in 2020 was -0.47 in the case of the TEA Party, and -0.36 in the case of either TOP or the Greens.

Variable	Voting Advance NZ 2020
European	0.19
Maori	0.63
Pacific Islander	-0.21
Asian	-0.69

The four correlations in the table above demonstrate that support for Advance NZ in 2020 was more complicated than just education.

The fact that Advance NZ voters tended to be poorly educated might explain why there is a strong positive correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being Maori (who tend to be poorly educated) and a strong negative correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being Asian (who tend to be well educated).

However, if education level was the only predictive factor, it would be impossible to explain why the correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being European (0.19) was positive whereas the correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being a Pacific Islander (-0.21) was negative.

The truth is that Advance NZ voters tended to come from the disenfranchised nationalist underclass that also produces a lot of New Zealand First voters. Hence, the presence of Advance NZ in the 2020 General Election may have been one of the reasons for the relatively poor New Zealand First result that year.

Variable	Voting Advance NZ 2020
Living in an urban electorate	-0.56

This chapter so far has already established the outsider nature of Advance NZ voters. Given that, it’s little surprise to see a strong negative correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and living in an urban electorate. Advance NZ voters are as physically outside of society as they are emotionally outside it.

Indeed, the strongest negative correlation between living in an urban electorate and voting for any party in 2020 was with voting Advance NZ, at -0.56. This was even stronger than the correlations between living in an urban electorate and voting for other outsider parties such as New Zealand First or Outdoors NZ in 2020 (both parties -0.43).

This, perhaps more than any other statistic, underlines the extent to which Advance NZ voters live far away from the levers of power. Their sudden rise could be taken as a sign that there is significant dissatisfaction with the way New Zealand is being run, and their fall is good news for the other protest parties and for New Zealand First in particular, who stand to pick up the voters.

Variable	Voting Advance NZ 2020
Working as a manager	0.04
Working as a professional	-0.61
Working as a technician or trades worker	0.31
Working as a community or personal services worker	0.38
Working as a clerical or administrative worker	-0.48
Working as a sales worker	-0.36
Working as a machinery operator or driver	0.31
Working as a labourer	0.63

Fitting with the picture of Advance NZ voters as poorly educated, there was a strong negative correlation of -0.61 between voting Advance NZ 2020 and working as a professional. However, there was also a significant negative correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and working as a clerical or administrative worker (-0.48) or a sales worker (-0.36), which are not typically highly-educated professions.

The explanation for this apparent paradox is that Advance NZ did poorly among typically urban professions in general, because urbanites tend to be “in” (the system) whereas rural dwellers tend to be “out” of it.

Consequently, there was a significant positive correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and working in a number of typically disenfranchised professions, such as labourer (0.63), community or personal services worker (0.38), machinery operator or driver (0.31) ot technician or trades worker (0.31).

The most difficult correlation to explain is that of voting Advance NZ in 2020 and working as a manager (0.04). On the one hand, managers are not disenfranchised, and are therefore unlike the typical Advance NZ voter. But on the other hand, managers don’t usually need to be well-educated, rather determined and stress-tolerant. So in comparison to those who work as professional, managers are more likely to fall for huckstering.

Variable	Voting Advance NZ 2020
Working in agriculture, forestry or fishing	0.54
Working in mining	0.38
Working in manufacturing	0.25
Working in electricity, gas, water or wastewater	0.20
Working in construction	0.45
Working in wholesale trade	-0.45
Working in retail trade	0.06
Working in accommodation or food services	-0.04
Working in transport, postal or warehousing	0.14
Working in information media or telecommunications	-0.58
Working in financial or insurance services	-0.64
Working in rental, hiring or real estate services	-0.21
Working in professional, scientific or technical services	-0.63
Working in administrative or support services	-0.03
Working in public administration or safety	-0.20
Working in education or training	-0.11
Working in healthcare or social assistance	0.15
Working in arts or recreation services	-0.10

When it comes to industry, the most powerful predictive factor is once again relatively poor education of the average Advance NZ voter.

There are strong negative correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and working in a typically high-skilled industry such as financial or insurance services (-0.64), professional, scientific or technical services (-0.63) or information media or telecommunications (-0.58).

By contrast, there are significant positive correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and working in a typically low-skilled industry such as agriculture, forestry or fishing (0.54), construction (0.45), mining (0.38) or manufacturing (0.25).

There’s more to this than being rural, New Zealand-born and poorly educated. There’s a certain type of person who is disenfranchised enough that they turn to wild conspiracy theories (as opposed to accurate conspiracy theories) in order to explain their lot. These unfortunates are prone to paranoid distrust, which can make them see saviour figures in men like Billy TK and Jami-Lee Ross.

Variable	Voting Advance NZ 2020
Married (not separated)	-0.17
Divorced/separated/widowed	0.56
Never married	-0.04

There was a strong positive correlation of 0.56 between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being divorced/separated/widowed. Voting for a particular party in 2020 was also strongly positively correlated with being divorced/separated/widowed in the case of New Zealand First (0.64), NZ Outdoors Party (0.52) and New Conservative (0.47).

This points to a moderate to high level of disagreeability among Advance NZ voters. This disagreeability could contribute to the sense of outsidership that motivates a person to vote for an outsider party like Advance NZ.

All these correlations fill in our picture of the average Advance NZ voter. The sort of person who votes Advance NZ is the sort of person who spends a lot of time on the Internet, and who doesn’t have much in the way of competing interests such as a job or an education. A correlation of 0.56 between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being divorced, separated or widowed paints a picture of a reasonably unhappy, reasonably socially isolated Boomer.

This article is an excerpt from the upcoming 3rd Edition of Understanding New Zealand, by Dan McGlashan and published by VJM Publishing. Understanding New Zealand is the comprehensive guide to the demographics and voting patterns of the New Zealand people.

If you enjoyed reading this essay/article, you can get a compilation of the Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2019 from Amazon for Kindle or Amazon for CreateSpace (for international readers), or TradeMe (for Kiwis). A compilation of the Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2018 and the Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2017 are also available.

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Understanding New Zealand 3: Who Voted New Conservative in 2020

The New Conservative Party had one of the strongest Internet presences of any party leading up to the 2020 General Election. They regularly scored 5%+ in online polls of voting intent. In the actual election, however, they only got 42,613 votes, or 1.5% of the total. This was not enough to win any seats in Parliament.

Variable	Voting New Conservative in 2020
Voting Labour in 2020	0.13
Voting National in 2020	0.68
Voting Greens in 2020	-0.35
Voting ACT in 2020	0.68
Voting New Zealand First in 2020	0.29
Voting TOP in 2020	-0.05
Voting Maori Party in 2020	-0.57
Voting Advance NZ in 2020	0.12
Voting ALCP in 2020	-0.31
Voting Sustainable NZ in 2020	0.37
Voting Social Credit in 2020	0.35
Voting NZ Outdoors Party in 2020	0.34

Unsurprisingly, New Conservative voters were similar to National and ACT voters. The correlations between voting New Conservative in 2020 and voting National in 2020 or voting ACT in 2020 were both 0.68. This reflects that New Conservative is a right-wing party, competing for the same votes as National and ACT.

Although there was a significant positive correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and voting New Zealand First in 2020 (0.29), this was not as strong as any of the correlations between voting New Conservative in 2020 and voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 (0.37), voting Social Credit in 2020 (0.35) or voting NZ Outdoors Party in 2020 (0.34).

These positive correlations seem unlikely, given that New Conservative is right-wing and New Zealand First, Sustainable NZ, Social Credit and NZ Outdoors Party are all centrist/leftist. But they can be explained by the fact that all these parties appeal to the relatively disenfranchised, and hence they share demographics on that basis.

The strongest negative correlations were between voting New Conservative in 2020 and voting Maori Party in 2020 (-0.57), voting Vision NZ Party in 2020 (-0.42), voting Greens in 2020 (-0.35) or voting Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party in 2020 (-0.31).

These correlations are easy to explain: New Conservative voters tend to be old and white, whereas Maori Party, Vision NZ Party and ALCP voters tend to be young and brown, and Greens voters tend to be young.

Variable	Voting New Conservative in 2020
European	0.50
Maori	-0.44
Pacific Islander	-0.25
Asian	-0.21

The New Conservatives made a big deal about the racial diversity of their candidates, but their constituency was solidly white. As with the National and ACT parties, there was a significant positive correlation between being of European descent and voting New Conservative in 2020 (0.50).

The negative correlation between being a Pacific Islander and voting New Conservative in 2020 (-0.25) was much weaker than the correlations between being a Pacific Islander and voting either National in 2020 (-0.46) or ACT in 2020 (-0.58). This was mostly down to two major factors: the fact that then-Deputy Leader Elliot Ikilei was conspicuously Polynesian, and the fact that the New Conservatives in general were conspicuously Christian.

The strongest negative correlation between voting New Conservative and belonging to a particular race was with Maoris, at -0.44. This can be explained by the fact that Maoris, who tend to be younger and poorer than the rest of New Zealand, have little incentive to vote for the status quo.

Variable	Voting New Conservative in 2020
No religion	0.04
Buddhism	-0.24
Christianity	0.24
Hinduism	-0.21
Islam	-0.22
Judaism	-0.36
Maori religions	-0.38
Spiritualism and New Age	0.01

Maoris and Jews share very few things in common, but one thing they do share is a significant dislike for voting New Conservative in 2020. The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and following one of the Maori religions was -0.38, and with being a Jew it was -0.36.

The only one religious group to have a positive correlation with voting for the New Conservative Party in 2020 was Christians, and even then the correlation was barely significant (0.24). The irony is that religious people, being conservative, tend to favour the status quo, and therefore they favour the status quo conservative party (National) and not the alternative conservative party (New Conservatives).

This means that the conspiciously Christian branding of the New Conservatives did little to win the votes of mainstream Christians. The Christian fringe, however, were significantly more likely to vote New Conservative in 2020 than vote for other parties.

Variable	Voting New Conservative in 2020
20-24 years old	-0.52
25-29 years old	-0.47
30-34 years old	-0.33
35-39 years old	-0.20
40-44 years old	0.01
45-49 years old	0.30
50-54 years old	0.46
55-59 years old	0.59
60-64 years old	0.63
65-69 years old	0.61
70-74 years old	0.64
75-79 years old	0.65
80-84 years old	0.65
85+ years old	0.54

Like most reactionary parties around the world, New Conservative voters were old. There was a significant positive correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and belonging to any age bracket above 45 years old. All of the age brackets between 60 and 84 years old had a positive correlation of at least 0.60 with voting New Conservative in 2020.

The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and belonging to a particular age bracket became more and more positive as age increases, from the 20-24 age bracket (where it is -0.52) all the way up to the 60-64 age bracket (where it is 0.63). Older age brackets were consistently strong supporters of New Conservative.

The obvious reason for this is that young people don’t like conservatism. They are much less likely to own homes or to earn a wage that they can one day buy a home with. As such, they are not incentivised to support the status quo. Moreover, young people are much less likely to be Christian.

Variable	Voting New Conservative in 2020
Being male	0.09

The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and being male was not significant, at 0.09. This was however the third highest proportion of male voters of all parties. Only voting Heartland NZ in 2020 (0.11) and voting Outdoors NZ in 2020 (0.22) had stronger positive correlations with being male.

This accords with data from other countries, where conservative parties regularly get a higher proportion of male voters. This is usually because male voters tend to have higher incomes, but this is not the case for New Conservative voters. This is further evidence that New Conservative voters were motivated by social conservatism more than economic conservatism.

Variable	Voting New Conservative in 2020
Median income	-0.19
Mean income	-0.27

One major way in which New Conservative voters differ from National and ACT voters is income. There is a significant positive correlation between mean income and voting either National or ACT in 2020, but a significant negative correlation between mean income and voting New Conservative in 2020.

This suggests a paradox: New Conservative voters vote for the right-wing, which usually favours those with money, despite that New Conservative voters don’t have much money themselves. This paradox can be resolved by referencing the fact that New Conservative voters tend to be religious and so, like low-income Americans who vote for right-wing parties, they tend to be values voters.

Variable	Voting New Conservative 2020
Not studying	0.63
Wage or salary	-0.45
Interest, dividends, rent or other investments	0.29
NZ Super or Veteran’s pension	0.65
Student Allowance	-0.48

New Conservative voters might not have a high income (the correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and mean income was -0.27), but they are comfortable and secure by many measures. For example, there was a significant positive correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and receiving NZ Super or a Veteran’s pension (0.65) or receiving income through interest, dividends, rent or other investments (0.29).

By contrast, there was a strong negative correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and receiving a wage or salary (-0.45). This wasn’t because students vote for them either: there was a correlation of 0.63 between voting New Conservative in 2020 and not studying, and also a significant negative correlation of -0.48 between voting New Conservative in 2020 and being on the Student Allowance.

It seems that New Conservative is, to a large extent, a pensioner’s party. They seem to attract many of the conservative old people who are more Christian, rather than the more ethnonationalist, who tend to prefer New Zealand First.

Variable	Voting New Conservative 2020
Own or part own house	0.71
Neither own house nor family trust	-0.71

New Conservative voters were very likely to own their own homes – the correlation between voting for them in 2020 and owning or part-owning a house was 0.71. In this sense, New Conservative voters also suffer from the “too much time on the Internet” phenomenon that affected Advance NZ voters. This explains why both parties got so few votes in comparison to the size of their Internet presence.

The correlation between receiving NZ Super or a Veteran’s Pension and owning or part-owning a house was 0.79, one of the strongest correlations in the whole Understanding New Zealand dataset. This explains why New Conservative voters tend to own their own houses despite being low-income.

Variable	Voting New Conservative in 2020
No qualifications	0.24
Level 1 certificate	0.40
Level 2 certificate	0.25
Level 3 certificate	-0.55
Level 4 certificate	0.35
Level 5 diploma	0.37
Level 6 diploma	0.55
Bachelor’s degree	-0.31
Honours degree	-0.26
Master’s degree	-0.35
Doctorate	-0.25

As with Advance NZ, there was a significant negative correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and having any of the university degrees. These negative correlations were not as strong as they were for Advance NZ, however.

The most likely to vote New Conservative in 2020 were those with a level 6 diploma – the correlation here was 0.55. The reason for this is the strong support for the New Conservatives among tradesmen who have completed training at polytechnic – the correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and being a technician or trades worker was 0.52.

That New Conservative voters might be poorly educated is not a surprise to those who have observed similar Christian fundamentalist movements in other countries. The New Conservative’s message was primarily based on fear, and fear-based messaging primarily appeals to the poorly educated. This explains the constant hysteria about homosexuality and cannabis use.

Variable	Voting New Conservative in 2020
Working in agriculture, forestry or fishing	0.34
Working in mining	0.17
Working in manufacturing	0.24
Working in electricity, gas, water or wastewater	0.14
Working in construction	0.37
Working in wholesale trade	0.05
Working in retail trade	0.35
Working in accommodation or food services	-0.32
Working in transport, postal or warehousing	-0.25
Working in information media and telecommunications	-0.46
Working in financial and insurance services	-0.31
Working in rental, hiring and real estate services	0.06
Working in professional, scientific and technical services	-0.29
Working in administrative and support services	-0.46
Working in public administration and safety	-0.24
Working in education and training	-0.23
Working in healthcare and social assistance	0.11
Working in arts and recreation services	-0.35

Fittingly, then, the party was heavily represented among those working in masculine industries.

There was a significant positive correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and working in construction (0.37) or working in agriculture, forestry and fishing (0.34). There was also a significant negative correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and working in administrative and support services (-0.46), being a community and personal service worker (-0.31) or working in public administration and safety (-0.24).

These correlations don’t reflect the relatively poor educational levels of New Conservative voters so much as they reflect a particularly object-orientated social approach. New Conservative voters appear to be disinclined towards working with people, and prefer working with things. This is typical for masculine groups.

Variable	Voting New Conservative in 2020
Working as a manager	0.36
Working as a professional	-0.33
Working as a technician or trades worker	0.52
Working as a community or personal services worker	-0.31
Working as clerical or administrative worker	-0.01
Working as a sales worker	-0.09
Working as a machinery operator or driver	0.02
Working as a labourer	0.07

The occupation in which one is least likely to find a New Conservative voter is professional. The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and being a professional was significantly negative, at -0.33. This reflects multiple factors, but in particular the poor education of New Conservative voters.

The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and working as a manager was significantly positive, at 0.36. This is primarily a function of two things. One, managers tend to be older than average, like New Conservative voters. Two, managers don’t need to be well-educated to perform in their roles, just committed.

Some might be suprised to read that the correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and working as a technician or trades worker (0.52) was so much stronger than the correlations between voting that was and working as as machinery operator or driver (0.02) or as a labourer (0.07) were much weaker.

This can be explained by age. New Conservative voters, as discussed above, tend to be old. Few old people can cut it as labourers, or even as machinery operators and drivers. But there are many old people working as technicians or trades workers. The trades are well-known for appealing to youngsters on account of that many of their workers will soon retire.

Variable	Voting New Conservative 2020
Has no children	-0.54
Has one child	-0.21
Has two children	0.65
Has three children	0.61
Has four children	0.26
Has five children	-0.07
Has six or more children	-0.24

The correlations between voting New Conservative in 2020 and having children are the strongest for having two children (0.65) or having three children (0.61). This is not surprising given the age of New Conservative voters. Those who have no children, or only one, tend to be much younger and less religious.

Being mostly white, New Conservative voters are significantly less likely to have six or more children. The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and having six or more children was -0.24. The correlation between voting National in 2020 and having six or more children was, however, -0.59, so New Conservative voters are relatively fecund by that measure.

In summary, New Conservative voters represent a kind of old-school masculinity that perhaps hasn’t adjusted well to changing times. This is best shown by the strong negative correlation of -0.66 between voting New Conservative in 2020 and casting a special vote for Yes in the cannabis referendum.

New Conservative voters tend to be old, white, male, poorly educated and Christian. As such, they are very much the same demographic targeted by the American Republican Party in their “Southern Strategy”. Such voters are not as numerous in New Zealand as in America, but there might still be enough of them to get New Conservative over the 5% in 2023.

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Understanding New Zealand 3: Who Voted Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party in 2020

Many thought that holding a cannabis referendum at the same time as a General Election would lead to a surge in support for the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party. In the end, they only got 13,329 votes, or around 0.5% of the party vote. This chapter explain why a hundred times more people voted for cannabis law reform than for the cannabis party.

It will be surprising for many to hear that there wasn’t much overlap between those who voted ALCP in 2020 and those who cast a special vote for Yes in the cannabis referendum- the correlation between the two groups was 0.23. This was statistically significant, but only barely so, and is much weaker than many other correlations with voting ALCP in 2020.

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
No qualifications	0.55
Level 1 certificate	0.55
Level 2 certificate	0.64
Level 3 certificate	0.37
Level 4 certificate	0.53
Level 5 diploma	0.36
Level 6 diploma	-0.56
Bachelor’s degree	-0.56
Honours degree	-0.55
Master’s degree	-0.53
Doctorate	-0.44

The trend here is obvious: the better-educated a person is, the less likely they were to vote ALCP in 2020. This is similar to previous elections. What this trend reveals is that the ALCP is seen as a joke party by the vast majority of the electorate, and people only vote for them if they feel that their vote doesn’t matter.

In this regard, a vote for the ALCP is similar to not voting, in that it follows the General Disenfranchisement Rule. The ALCP is something of a joke party and so, like not voting, it tends to appeal to those who feel that their vote doesn’t matter anyway. We can predict from this that the demographics of ALCP voters are very similar to the demographics of non-voters.

These correlations explain why the correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and special voting Yes in the cannabis referendum was only 0.23. The more poorly-educated a person is, the more likely they are to vote ALCP, but the better-educated a person was, the more likely they were to special vote Yes in the cannabis referendum.

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
European	-0.08
Maori	0.88
Pacific Islander	-0.05
Asian	-0.53

Indeed, we can see an extremely strong correlation of 0.88 between being Maori and voting ALCP in 2020. Kiwis of European descent and Pacific Islanders were generally neutral about voting ALCP, and Asians were strongly against it. These patterns mirror the numbers of poorly-educated and disenfranchised people among those racial groups.

For many Maori people, the Establishment is implacably opposed to them and so it doesn’t matter who they vote for. This is why so many of them either don’t vote or vote for protest parties like the ALCP. Their high levels of support for the ALCP could be considered a consequence of general disenfranchisement.

However, it isn’t just a protest vote. Maori people are much more heavily affected by cannabis prohibition than other races, on account of that they are much more likely to use it as a recreational alternative to alcohol in comparison to all of whites, Pacific Islanders and Asians. Moreover, the relative insecurity of dwelling suffered by Maori people means that they are more likely to use cannabis in public, and thereby more likely to suffer legal consequences.

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
Voting Labour in 2020	-0.27
Voting National in 2020	-0.60
Voting Greens in 2020	-0.23
Voting ACT in 2020	-0.48
Voting New Zealand First in 2020	0.38
Voting New Conservative in 2020	-0.31
Voting The Opportunities Party in 2020	-0.34
Voting Maori Party in 2020	0.81
Voting Advance NZ in 2020	0.68
Voting Sustainable NZ in 2020	-0.41

One pattern immediately leaps out when we look at the correlations between voting ALCP in 2020 and voting for other parties: all of the correlations between voting ALCP in 2020 and voting for one of the four major globalist parties is significantly negative.

The most negative of all was the correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and voting National in 2020: this was -0.60. The ALCP-voting demographics differ from the National-voting demographics in several major ways, as this chapter will discuss.

Some might be surprised to see that the correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and voting Greens in 2020 was -0.23. The ALCP is considered by many to be a Greens-adjacent party, on account of that the cannabis law reform issue has been pushed by the Greens more than by any other party. But the only major quality shared by both Greens and ALCP voters is that they tend to be young.

Those surprised at that will likely also be surprised by the correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and voting New Zealand First in 2020, which was 0.38. This reflects a shared tendency for ALCP and New Zealand First voters to be both Maori and poorly educated.

The heavy Maori support for the ALCP also explains why there are strong correlations between voting ALCP in 2020 and voting Maori Party in 2020 (0.81) or voting Advance NZ in 2020 (0.68).

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
Median income	-0.28
Mean income	-0.26

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
<$5,000	0.01
$5,000-$10,000	0.25
$10,000-$20,000	0.58
$20,000-$30,000	0.33
$30,000-$50,000	0.23
$50,000-$70,000	-0.36
$70,000+	-0.51

Fitting with the general theme of disenfranchisement, ALCP voters are considerably poorer than the average voter. The correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and median income was -0.28. This is actually wealthier than would be predicted from their education level, but still significantly poorer than the New Zealand average.

The most positive correlation between voting ALCP and belonging to a particular income bracket was the $10,000-$20,000 “beneficiary” bracket, which was 0.58. The most negative correlation between voting ALCP and belonging to a particular income bracket was the $70,000+ bracket, which was -0.51.

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
New Zealand-born	0.69

Disenfranchisement is only very rarely imported to New Zealand. The vast majority of people at the bottom of our society are home grown. This may sound strange, especially to those who follow the narrative that being an immigrant automatically makes a person a member of an oppressed group.

The reality is that New Zealand-born people make up the vast bulk of those doing bad, and ALCP voters are often among these.

On the surface, it seems paradoxical to have a situation where highly-educated people voted in favour of cannabis law reform in the referendum, but mostly poorly-educated people voted in favour of the cannabis law reform party at the 2020 General Election.

The explanation is that the ALCP is something of a joke vote for people who aren’t serious. Many people feel that their party vote is worthless anyway, on account of that the Establishment will always win, so they protest by casting a vote for the ALCP. These sentiments did not apply to the cannabis referendum, where many people felt that they had an opportunity to stick it to the Establishment by voting for freedom.

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
Living in an urban electorate	-0.39
Living on the North Island	-0.04

ALCP voters are more likely to be rural dwellers than urban ones – the correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and living in an urban electorate was . There are several possible reasons for this. The most obvious is the large Maori proportion of ALCP voters, because Maori people tend to live rurally. Another likely reason is that, because cannabis is currently illegal, people who grow it prefer to operate away from high concentrations of potential noticers.

The correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and living on the North Island was not only not significant, it was negative. This will surprise those who thought that most ALCP voters are gang members from Hastings and Napier. The truth is that the ALCP gets a lot of votes from hippies and “Dark Green” environmentalists, as well as doomsday preppers, and many of those live in rural South Island.

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
No religion	0.29
Is Buddhist	-0.57
Is Christian	-0.35
Is Hindu	-0.41
Is Jew	-0.39
Is Muslim	-0.41
Is follower of a Maori religion	0.72
Is Spiritualist or New Ager	0.35

We can see even more evidence of heavy Maori support for cannabis law reform when looking at the correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and being a follower of a Maori religion, which was 0.72. This was much stronger than any other correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and religious affiliation.

The next most positive correlation was the one between voting ALCP in 2020 and being a Spiritualist or New Ager, which was 0.35. The explanation for this is not as obvious as the one for Maori religions, but comes down to the fact that New Agers in particular consider cannabis to be a spiritual sacrament and its prohibition a moral obscenity.

There was also a significant positive correlation of 0.29 between voting ALCP in 2020 and having no religion. This will surprise those who are aware that people with no religion tend to be better-educated than those with a religion, and that ALCP voters tend to be poorly educated. The explanation is that most of the prejudice against cannabis users comes from religious people, who see cannabis use as a rival spiritual practice.

In the case of Christians, this represents a significant antipathy towards cannabis users (see Chapter 11). In the case of the followers of the religions not yet mentioned (particularly Jews), it reflects the fact that the ALCP is a joke party in the minds of many, and followers of Asian religions tend to take their votes seriously.

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
Employed full-time	-0.25
Employed part-time	0.12
Unemployed	0.64

Few will be surprised by the strong positive correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and being unemployed – this was 0.64. Unemployment is correlated with many other variables that are themselves correlated with voting ALCP in 2020, such as being young, being Maori or being poorly educated.

The correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and being employed part-time will surprise many, on account of that ALCP voters are stereotyped as non-workers. But, as with other disenfranchised demographics, ALCP voters often find themselves working part-time to make ends meet. Many ALCP voters on the Supported Living Payment or the Sole Parent Payment will fall into this category.

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
No source of income	-0.06
Earning a wage or salary	-0.00
Being self-employed or owning one’s own business	-0.35
Receiving interest, dividends, rent or other investment income	-0.58
Receiving ACC or private work insurance	0.70
Receiving NZ Super or Veteran’s pension	-0.19
Receiving JobSeeker Support	0.77
Receiving Sole Parent Support	0.77
Receiving Supported Living Payment	0.55
Receiving Student Allowance	0.03

Some might think that, because many ALCP voters are young and because the ALCP is something of a protest party, that many students would support them. This is not the case. The correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and receiving a Student Allowance was a mere 0.03. This is probably because cannabis law reform is mostly an issue for those doing it tough, and tertiary students tend to be middle-class.

The two least disenfranchised categories of benefit recipients are pensioners and students. This is because pensioners usually own their own homes, and students are usually middle-class and only temporarily poor while they are young. Following from this, neither of the correlations between being either on a pension or on a student allowance and voting ALCP in 2020 were statistically significant.

The strongest correlations between voting ALCP in 2020 and any income type were with receiving JobSeeker Support and receiving Sole Parent Support. Both were 0.77. This paints a picture of the ALCP as a party for those who feel excluded by society to some extent, the true protest vote in contrast with Greens and ACT.

Supporting this contention are the strong correlations between voting ALCP in 2020 and receiving a Supported Living Payment (0.55) and receiving ACC or private work insurance (0.70). The mentally and physically damaged people in these categories are the ones most likely to have discovered the medicinal properties of cannabis.

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
Working as a manager	-0.31
Working as a professional	-0.48
Working as a technician or trades worker	0.21
Working as a community or personal services worker	0.57
Working as a clerical or administrative worker	-0.36
Working as a sales worker	-0.14
Working as a machinery operator or driver	0.37
Working as a labourer	0.59

When examining the occupations of ALCP voters, some patterns are evident that are the reverse of patterns of people who voted Yes in the cannabis referendum. This goes a long way to explain why there was such a weak correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and voting Yes in the cannabis referendum.

Unlike with voting Yes in the cannabis referendum, the more disenfranchised a demographic is the more likely they were to vote ALCP in 2020. The reasons for this are complex.

Simply put, many disenfranchised General Election voters don’t feel that they have a realistic chance of influencing the election, so they throw their vote to a joke/protest party. On the other hand, voters in the cannabis referendum felt enfranchised, and felt like they did have a realistic chance of influencing the outcome, so they acted more seriously, and voted Yes.

Variable	Voting ALCP in 2020
Working in agriculture, forestry or fishing	0.26
Working in mining	0.20
Working in manufacturing	0.27
Working in electricity, gas, water and wastewater services	0.25
Working in construction	0.36
Working in wholesale trade	-0.34
Working in retail trade	0.02
Working in accommodation or food services	0.02
Working in transport, postal or warehousing	0.35
Working in information media or telecommunications	-0.37
Working in financial or insurance services	-0.45
Working in rental, hiring or real estate services	-0.38
Working in professional, scientific or technical services	-0.49
Working in administrative or support services	0.13
Working in public administration and safety	-0.02
Working in education and training	-0.06
Working in healthcare or social assistance	0.04
Working in arts or recreation services	-0.04

As with occupations, a familiar pattern presents itself with industries. The more enfranchised workers in any given industry tend to be, the less likely they tend to vote ALCP.

The industries peopled by those who usually take their lives seriously don’t vote ALCP often. The correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and industry was significantly negative in the case of working in professional, scientific or technical services (-0.49), financial or insurance services (-0.45), rental, hiring or real estate services (-0.38), information media or telecommunications (-0.37) or wholesale trade (-0.34).

Industries peopled by those who tend to have less ambition, by contrast, show the opposite pattern. The correlation between voting ALCP in 2020 and industry was significantly positive in the case of working in construction (0.36), transport, postal or warehousing (0.35), manufacturing (0.27), agriculture, forestry or fishing (0.26) or electricity, gas, water and wastewater (0.25).

This lays bare the reality of the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party: it’s not seen as a serious Parliamentary option, and so mostly attracts votes from protest voters. This is the reason why most demographics vote very differently when it comes to General Elections on the one hand, and cannabis law reform referendums on the other.

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Understanding New Zealand 3: Who Voted Maori Party in 2020?

The Maori Party won 33,630 votes in the 2020 General Election, for 1.17% of the total vote. They have been getting a lot of media coverage recently, and have been climbing in the polls as a result, and are now looking to expand their support into previously untapped demographics. This chapter explains who voted for them in 2020.

The obvious assumption is that Maori people vote for The Maori Party, but it’s not as simple as that. For one thing, a significant number of non-Maoris vote for The Maori Party. For another, the Maoris who do vote for The Maori Party are not necessarily representative of the Maori population as a whole.

This chapter will therefore focus mostly on the differences between the average Maori Party voter and the average Maori, and not on the differences between the average Maori Party voter and the average Kiwi. Generally speaking, the average Maori Party voter is significantly more enfranchised than the average Maori, and this is characteristic of the difference between the two populations.

Variable	Voting Maori Party in 2020
European	-0.31
Maori	0.91
Pacific Islander	0.06
Asian	-0.32

Some Kiwis of European descent and Asians vote for The Maori Party on account of general anti-Establishment sentiments. To some, it feels as if Labour, National, The Greens and ACT are all part of the one Establishment. Some votes for The Maori Party, then, are effectively protest votes. Some Pacific Islanders might have voted for The Maori Party on account of general pan-Polynesian sentiments.

The support of any of these three racial groups, however, were dwarfed by Maori support for The Maori Party. The correlation between being Maori and voting for The Maori Party in 2020 was 0.91, one of the strongest in this entire survey.

Variable	Voting Maori Party in 2020	Being Maori
Voting Labour in 2020	-0.37	-0.33
Voting National in 2020	-0.71	-0.65
Voting Greens in 2020	-0.15	-0.27
Voting ACT in 2020	-0.64	-0.58
Voting NZF in 2020	0.07	0.32
Voting New Conservative in 2020	-0.57	-0.44
Voting ALCP in 2020	0.81	0.88
Voting Advance NZ in 2020	0.47	0.63

Curiously, there was a significant negative correlation between voting Maori Party in 2020 and voting either Labour in 2020 (-0.37) or voting National in 2020 (-0.71). The least strong negative correlation between voting Maori Party in 2020 and voting for any of the four other Parliamentary parties in 2020 was with The Greens, at -0.15.

Two of the most striking correlations are these: 0.81 between voting Maori Party in 2020 and voting ALCP in 2020, and 0.88 between being Maori and voting ALCP in 2020. Considering that cannabis prohibition is one of the best examples of a colonial law that disproportionately harms Maori people, one might think there was a great opportunity there for The Maori Party to oppose it.

Some might be surprised to see such an overlap between Maori Party voters and New Zealand First voters. After all, the former are characterised in the mainstream media as far-left extremists and the latter as far-right extremists. The reality is that the former are Maori nationalists and the latter are Kiwi nationalists, and because so many Kiwis are Maori and because white Kiwi nationalists are usually pro-Maori, the two populations have much in common.

Variable	Voting Maori Party in 2020	Being Maori
No qualifications	0.34	0.53
Level 1 certificate	0.28	0.46
Level 2 certificate	0.44	0.59
Level 3 certificate	0.51	0.46
Level 4 certificate	0.33	0.52
Level 5 diploma	0.24	0.37
Level 6 diploma	-0.64	-0.67
Bachelor’s degree	-0.34	-0.53
Honour’s degree	-0.38	-0.55
Master’s degree	-0.31	-0.50
Doctorate	-0.28	-0.43

Maori Party voters are much better educated than the average Maori. Not only are they much more likely to have gone past high school, they’re also much more likely to have a degree.

Maori Party voters were significantly less likely to have a university degree than the average Kiwi, but none of the correlations between voting Maori Party in 2020 and having any of the degrees were stronger than -0.38. By contrast, all of the correlations between being Maori and having any of the degrees were stronger than -0.43.

These correlations reveal the basic truth about Maori Party voters: they represent the Maori elite, and are in many ways more like middle-class white people than they are like the average Maori.

Variable	Voting Maori Party in 2020	Being Maori
Living urban	-0.26	-0.39

Maori Party voters are much more urban than Maori people in general. This is a useful clue when it comes to understanding the average Maori Party voter.

Urban life tends to be cosmopolitan and therefore tends to cultivate pro-globalist sentiments. So if Maori Party voters are more urban, they can be expected to have some globalist sympathies. The average rural Maori is much more likely to favour New Zealand First than the Maori Party.

Urban areas are also where the power is, and the fact that Maori Party voters are more likely to be urbanites than Maoris in general demonstrates the extent to which Maori Party voters are more enfranchised.

Variable	Voting Maori Party in 2020	Being Maori
Median income	-0.11	-0.30
Mean income	-0.08	-0.25

Maori Party voters in 2020 were significantly wealthier than Maoris in general. In fact, the average Maori Party voter in 2020 was not much poorer than the average New Zealander. The average Maori, by contrast, is significantly poorer.

Understanding the correlations of education and wealth, a distinct class division within Maoridom becomes evident. The majority of Maoris tend to vote for the Labour and New Zealand First parties, and these make up the broad Maori masses. The Maori elites, who expect to be granted Government subsidies and handouts, tend to vote for The Maori Party.

Variable	Voting Maori Party in 2020	Being Maori
Managers	-0.36	-0.36
Professionals	-0.27	-0.43
Technicians and Trades Workers	-0.07	0.03
Community and Personal Service Workers	0.51	0.56
Clerical and Administrative Workers	-0.19	-0.27
Sales Workers	-0.04	-0.15
Machinery Operators and Drivers	0.32	0.43
Labourers	0.42	0.58

In comparison to the average Maori, the average Maori Party voter is much more likely to be a professional or a clerical and administrative worker, and much less likely to be a technician and trades worker, a machinery operator or driver or a labourer.

This reinforces the class narrative noted above. Maori Party voters are much more likely to be independent professionals or important members of the Government machinery, whereas Maoris in general are more likely to have working-class professions.

Variable	Voting Maori Party 2020	Being Maori
Working in agriculture, forestry or fishing	0.06	0.23
Working in mining	0.05	0.08
Working in manufacturing	0.16	0.28
Working in electricity, gas, water and waste	0.17	0.29
Working in construction	0.15	0.20
Working in wholesale trade	-0.21	-0.31
Working in retail trade	-0.15	-0.15
Working in accommodation and food services	0.04	-0.05
Working in transport, postal and warehousing	0.42	0.41
Working in information media and telecommunications	-0.14	-0.32
Working in financial and insurance services	-0.22	-0.40
Working in rental, hiring and real estate services	-0.30	-0.40
Working in professional, scientific and technical services	-0.28	-0.46
Working in administrative and support services	0.33	0.29
Working in public administration and safety	0.05	0.04
Working in education and training	0.10	0.09
Working in healthcare and social assistance	-0.06	0.02
Working in arts and recreation services	0.10	-0.03

Looking at occupations, the pattern mentioned above reappears: the more working-class an occupation is, the fewer Maori Party voters it will have in comparison to Maori people in general.

This is most obvious with occupations such as agriculture, forestry and fishing. The correlation between working in this occupation and voting Maori Party in 2020 (0.06) was much weaker than the correlation between working in this occupation and being Maori (0.23). Similar gaps were seen with manufacturing (0.16 and 0.28, respectively) and electricity, gas, water and waste (0.17 and 0.29, respectively).

The opposite pattern was seen with middle-class occupations. The correlation between working in professional, scientific and technical services and voting Maori Party in 2020 (-0.28) was also much weaker than the correlation between working in this occupation and being Maori (-0.46), only negative. Similar gaps were seen with financial and insurance services (-0.22 and -0.40, respectively) and information media and telecommunications (-0.14 and -0.32, respectively).

This supports the tendency that Maori Party voters tend to be more middle-class than Maori people in general.

Variable	Voting Maori Party in 2020	Being Maori
% VAP Enrolled	-0.37	-0.40
Turnout rate	-0.69	-0.67

Many will be surprised to see that the turnout rate is actually lower for the group voting Maori Party in 2020 than for the group who are Maori. If Maori Party voters are more middle-class than Maori people in general, and if middle-class people vote more often working-class ones, then it seems paradoxical that Maori Party supporters would vote less often than Maori people in general.

The reason why can be explained by the demographics below: Maori Party voters are younger than Maoris in general, and younger people are less likely to vote.

Variable	Voting Maori Party in 2020	Being Maori
Median age	-0.01	0.05
Mean age	0.01	0.04

Maori Party voters are slightly younger than Maori people in general. One major reason for this is that The Maori Party is a radical party and young people are more attracted to radical politics. Another major reason is that The Maori Party is a relatively new party, and so has not had time to build lifetime allegiances, in contrast to Labour and New Zealand First. A third reason is that older Maoris tend to be more assimilationist than younger ones.

Variable	Voting Maori Party in 2020	Being Maori
Married (not separated)	-0.69	-0.66
Divorced/separated/widowed	-0.11	0.09
Never married	0.65	0.56

Given that getting married is more common among middle-class Kiwis than among working-class ones, it might come as a surprise that Maori Party voters are less likely to get married than Maori people in general.

The explanation is simple: because Maori Party voters are younger than Maori people in general, they have had less time to get married. This is also why the correlation between never being married and voting Maori Party in 2020 (0.65) was stronger than the correlation between never being married and being Maori (0.56).

The relatively middle-class nature of Maori Party voters reveals itself when comparing the correlation between being divorced/separated/widowed and voting Maori Party in 2020 (-0.11) with the correlation between being divorced/separated/widowed and being Maori (0.09), as middle-class people are, on average, much less likely to get divorced.

Variable	Voting Maori Party 2020	Being Maori
Own or part own house	-0.43	-0.32
Own house in family trust	-0.47	-0.51
Neither ownership nor family trust	0.53	0.45

It might come as a surprise to some that the average Maori Party voter is less likely to own their own home than the average Maori, as homeownership is typically middle-class and Maori Party voters tend to be more middle-class than Maoris in general.

However, it can be readily explained by the fact that Maori Party voters are much more urban than Maoris in general, and urban dwellers are more likely to be renters than homeowners. Furthermore, Maori Party voters are younger than Maoris in general. These two factors explain the lower homeownership rates.

Variable	Voting Maori Party 2020	Being Maori
No children	-0.02	-0.20
One child	-0.03	-0.14
Two children	-0.49	-0.47
Three children	-0.08	0.09
Four children	0.34	0.55
Five children	0.56	0.74
Six children	0.59	0.73

The average Maori Party voter is significantly less likely to have children than the average Maori. There are multiple reasons for this.

The foremost is the previously-mentioned class differences. Maori Party voters tend to be more middle-class than Maori people in general, and middle-class people have fewer children than working-class ones. There is also an age effect – Maori Party voters tend to be slightly younger than Maori people in general, and therefore have had less time to have children.

Variable	Voting Maori Party 2020	Being Maori
Income < $5,000	0.26	0.16
Income $5,000-$10,000	0.38	0.32
Income $10,000-$20,000	0.39	0.59
Income $20,000-$30,000	0.08	0.26
Income $30,000-$50,000	0.03	0.14
Income $50,000-$70,000	-0.40	-0.48
Income > $70,000	-0.35	-0.51

As mentioned in the previously discussed correlations, Maori Party voters tend to be more middle-class than Maori people in general. This is reflected everywhere, including (as most would expect) in income.

Although the average Maori Party voter was more likely than the average Maori to fall into the lowest income bands (those below $10,000), this can be explained by the fact that Maori Party voters are more likely to be students. The average Maori is considerably more likely to belong to the bands typical for working-class Kiwis ($10,000-$50,000).

The largest gap was with the correlation between having an income above $70,000 and voting Maori Party in 2020 (-0.35) and between having an income above $70,000 and being Maori (-0.51). This demonstrates that, all other things being equal, the wealthier a Maori person is, the more likely they are to vote Maori Party.

Variable	Voting Maori Party 2020	Being Maori
Being male	-0.08	-0.06

Other commentators have previously observed that Maori Party voters tend to be more female than male. This mystifies some because there’s no obvious reason why Maori Party policy should appeal more to women than to men.

The explanation is that Maoris in general tend to be more female than male. This is owing to the relatively high death rate among Maori males, a function of high rates of alcohol use, extremely high rates of tobacco use, and disproportionate rates of suicide. As such, because of the extremely strong correlation between being Maori and being a Maori Party voter, it follows that most Maori Party voters are female.

In summary, Maori Party voters occupy similar demographics to Maoris in general, which is unsurprising given the strength of the correlation between the two populations.

The main difference between Maori Party voters and Maoris in general is that the former are more globalist, the latter more nationalist. This is a function of the fact that Maori Party voters are much more part of the Establishment than the average Maori is. The more that any given Maori individual is likely to be close to the levers of power, the more likely they are to vote Maori Party.

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