The New Conservative Party had one of the strongest Internet presences of any party leading up to the 2020 General Election. They regularly scored 5%+ in online polls of voting intent. In the actual election, however, they only got 42,613 votes, or 1.5% of the total. This was not enough to win any seats in Parliament.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative in 2020 |
| Voting Labour in 2020 | 0.13 |
| Voting National in 2020 | 0.68 |
| Voting Greens in 2020 | -0.35 |
| Voting ACT in 2020 | 0.68 |
| Voting New Zealand First in 2020 | 0.29 |
| Voting TOP in 2020 | -0.05 |
| Voting Maori Party in 2020 | -0.57 |
| Voting Advance NZ in 2020 | 0.12 |
| Voting ALCP in 2020 | -0.31 |
| Voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 | 0.37 |
| Voting Social Credit in 2020 | 0.35 |
| Voting NZ Outdoors Party in 2020 | 0.34 |
Unsurprisingly, New Conservative voters were similar to National and ACT voters. The correlations between voting New Conservative in 2020 and voting National in 2020 or voting ACT in 2020 were both 0.68. This reflects that New Conservative is a right-wing party, competing for the same votes as National and ACT.
Although there was a significant positive correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and voting New Zealand First in 2020 (0.29), this was not as strong as any of the correlations between voting New Conservative in 2020 and voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 (0.37), voting Social Credit in 2020 (0.35) or voting NZ Outdoors Party in 2020 (0.34).
These positive correlations seem unlikely, given that New Conservative is right-wing and New Zealand First, Sustainable NZ, Social Credit and NZ Outdoors Party are all centrist/leftist. But they can be explained by the fact that all these parties appeal to the relatively disenfranchised, and hence they share demographics on that basis.
The strongest negative correlations were between voting New Conservative in 2020 and voting Maori Party in 2020 (-0.57), voting Vision NZ Party in 2020 (-0.42), voting Greens in 2020 (-0.35) or voting Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party in 2020 (-0.31).
These correlations are easy to explain: New Conservative voters tend to be old and white, whereas Maori Party, Vision NZ Party and ALCP voters tend to be young and brown, and Greens voters tend to be young.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative in 2020 |
| European | 0.50 |
| Maori | -0.44 |
| Pacific Islander | -0.25 |
| Asian | -0.21 |
The New Conservatives made a big deal about the racial diversity of their candidates, but their constituency was solidly white. As with the National and ACT parties, there was a significant positive correlation between being of European descent and voting New Conservative in 2020 (0.50).
The negative correlation between being a Pacific Islander and voting New Conservative in 2020 (-0.25) was much weaker than the correlations between being a Pacific Islander and voting either National in 2020 (-0.46) or ACT in 2020 (-0.58). This was mostly down to two major factors: the fact that then-Deputy Leader Elliot Ikilei was conspicuously Polynesian, and the fact that the New Conservatives in general were conspicuously Christian.
The strongest negative correlation between voting New Conservative and belonging to a particular race was with Maoris, at -0.44. This can be explained by the fact that Maoris, who tend to be younger and poorer than the rest of New Zealand, have little incentive to vote for the status quo.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative in 2020 |
| No religion | 0.04 |
| Buddhism | -0.24 |
| Christianity | 0.24 |
| Hinduism | -0.21 |
| Islam | -0.22 |
| Judaism | -0.36 |
| Maori religions | -0.38 |
| Spiritualism and New Age | 0.01 |
Maoris and Jews share very few things in common, but one thing they do share is a significant dislike for voting New Conservative in 2020. The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and following one of the Maori religions was -0.38, and with being a Jew it was -0.36.
The only one religious group to have a positive correlation with voting for the New Conservative Party in 2020 was Christians, and even then the correlation was barely significant (0.24). The irony is that religious people, being conservative, tend to favour the status quo, and therefore they favour the status quo conservative party (National) and not the alternative conservative party (New Conservatives).
This means that the conspiciously Christian branding of the New Conservatives did little to win the votes of mainstream Christians. The Christian fringe, however, were significantly more likely to vote New Conservative in 2020 than vote for other parties.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative in 2020 |
| 20-24 years old | -0.52 |
| 25-29 years old | -0.47 |
| 30-34 years old | -0.33 |
| 35-39 years old | -0.20 |
| 40-44 years old | 0.01 |
| 45-49 years old | 0.30 |
| 50-54 years old | 0.46 |
| 55-59 years old | 0.59 |
| 60-64 years old | 0.63 |
| 65-69 years old | 0.61 |
| 70-74 years old | 0.64 |
| 75-79 years old | 0.65 |
| 80-84 years old | 0.65 |
| 85+ years old | 0.54 |
Like most reactionary parties around the world, New Conservative voters were old. There was a significant positive correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and belonging to any age bracket above 45 years old. All of the age brackets between 60 and 84 years old had a positive correlation of at least 0.60 with voting New Conservative in 2020.
The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and belonging to a particular age bracket became more and more positive as age increases, from the 20-24 age bracket (where it is -0.52) all the way up to the 60-64 age bracket (where it is 0.63). Older age brackets were consistently strong supporters of New Conservative.
The obvious reason for this is that young people don’t like conservatism. They are much less likely to own homes or to earn a wage that they can one day buy a home with. As such, they are not incentivised to support the status quo. Moreover, young people are much less likely to be Christian.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative in 2020 |
| Being male | 0.09 |
The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and being male was not significant, at 0.09. This was however the third highest proportion of male voters of all parties. Only voting Heartland NZ in 2020 (0.11) and voting Outdoors NZ in 2020 (0.22) had stronger positive correlations with being male.
This accords with data from other countries, where conservative parties regularly get a higher proportion of male voters. This is usually because male voters tend to have higher incomes, but this is not the case for New Conservative voters. This is further evidence that New Conservative voters were motivated by social conservatism more than economic conservatism.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative in 2020 |
| Median income | -0.19 |
| Mean income | -0.27 |
One major way in which New Conservative voters differ from National and ACT voters is income. There is a significant positive correlation between mean income and voting either National or ACT in 2020, but a significant negative correlation between mean income and voting New Conservative in 2020.
This suggests a paradox: New Conservative voters vote for the right-wing, which usually favours those with money, despite that New Conservative voters don’t have much money themselves. This paradox can be resolved by referencing the fact that New Conservative voters tend to be religious and so, like low-income Americans who vote for right-wing parties, they tend to be values voters.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative 2020 |
| Not studying | 0.63 |
| Wage or salary | -0.45 |
| Interest, dividends, rent or other investments | 0.29 |
| NZ Super or Veteran’s pension | 0.65 |
| Student Allowance | -0.48 |
New Conservative voters might not have a high income (the correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and mean income was -0.27), but they are comfortable and secure by many measures. For example, there was a significant positive correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and receiving NZ Super or a Veteran’s pension (0.65) or receiving income through interest, dividends, rent or other investments (0.29).
By contrast, there was a strong negative correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and receiving a wage or salary (-0.45). This wasn’t because students vote for them either: there was a correlation of 0.63 between voting New Conservative in 2020 and not studying, and also a significant negative correlation of -0.48 between voting New Conservative in 2020 and being on the Student Allowance.
It seems that New Conservative is, to a large extent, a pensioner’s party. They seem to attract many of the conservative old people who are more Christian, rather than the more ethnonationalist, who tend to prefer New Zealand First.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative 2020 |
| Own or part own house | 0.71 |
| Neither own house nor family trust | -0.71 |
New Conservative voters were very likely to own their own homes – the correlation between voting for them in 2020 and owning or part-owning a house was 0.71. In this sense, New Conservative voters also suffer from the “too much time on the Internet” phenomenon that affected Advance NZ voters. This explains why both parties got so few votes in comparison to the size of their Internet presence.
The correlation between receiving NZ Super or a Veteran’s Pension and owning or part-owning a house was 0.79, one of the strongest correlations in the whole Understanding New Zealand dataset. This explains why New Conservative voters tend to own their own houses despite being low-income.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative in 2020 |
| No qualifications | 0.24 |
| Level 1 certificate | 0.40 |
| Level 2 certificate | 0.25 |
| Level 3 certificate | -0.55 |
| Level 4 certificate | 0.35 |
| Level 5 diploma | 0.37 |
| Level 6 diploma | 0.55 |
| Bachelor’s degree | -0.31 |
| Honours degree | -0.26 |
| Master’s degree | -0.35 |
| Doctorate | -0.25 |
As with Advance NZ, there was a significant negative correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and having any of the university degrees. These negative correlations were not as strong as they were for Advance NZ, however.
The most likely to vote New Conservative in 2020 were those with a level 6 diploma – the correlation here was 0.55. The reason for this is the strong support for the New Conservatives among tradesmen who have completed training at polytechnic – the correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and being a technician or trades worker was 0.52.
That New Conservative voters might be poorly educated is not a surprise to those who have observed similar Christian fundamentalist movements in other countries. The New Conservative’s message was primarily based on fear, and fear-based messaging primarily appeals to the poorly educated. This explains the constant hysteria about homosexuality and cannabis use.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative in 2020 |
| Working in agriculture, forestry or fishing | 0.34 |
| Working in mining | 0.17 |
| Working in manufacturing | 0.24 |
| Working in electricity, gas, water or wastewater | 0.14 |
| Working in construction | 0.37 |
| Working in wholesale trade | 0.05 |
| Working in retail trade | 0.35 |
| Working in accommodation or food services | -0.32 |
| Working in transport, postal or warehousing | -0.25 |
| Working in information media and telecommunications | -0.46 |
| Working in financial and insurance services | -0.31 |
| Working in rental, hiring and real estate services | 0.06 |
| Working in professional, scientific and technical services | -0.29 |
| Working in administrative and support services | -0.46 |
| Working in public administration and safety | -0.24 |
| Working in education and training | -0.23 |
| Working in healthcare and social assistance | 0.11 |
| Working in arts and recreation services | -0.35 |
Fittingly, then, the party was heavily represented among those working in masculine industries.
There was a significant positive correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and working in construction (0.37) or working in agriculture, forestry and fishing (0.34). There was also a significant negative correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and working in administrative and support services (-0.46), being a community and personal service worker (-0.31) or working in public administration and safety (-0.24).
These correlations don’t reflect the relatively poor educational levels of New Conservative voters so much as they reflect a particularly object-orientated social approach. New Conservative voters appear to be disinclined towards working with people, and prefer working with things. This is typical for masculine groups.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative in 2020 |
| Working as a manager | 0.36 |
| Working as a professional | -0.33 |
| Working as a technician or trades worker | 0.52 |
| Working as a community or personal services worker | -0.31 |
| Working as clerical or administrative worker | -0.01 |
| Working as a sales worker | -0.09 |
| Working as a machinery operator or driver | 0.02 |
| Working as a labourer | 0.07 |
The occupation in which one is least likely to find a New Conservative voter is professional. The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and being a professional was significantly negative, at -0.33. This reflects multiple factors, but in particular the poor education of New Conservative voters.
The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and working as a manager was significantly positive, at 0.36. This is primarily a function of two things. One, managers tend to be older than average, like New Conservative voters. Two, managers don’t need to be well-educated to perform in their roles, just committed.
Some might be suprised to read that the correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and working as a technician or trades worker (0.52) was so much stronger than the correlations between voting that was and working as as machinery operator or driver (0.02) or as a labourer (0.07) were much weaker.
This can be explained by age. New Conservative voters, as discussed above, tend to be old. Few old people can cut it as labourers, or even as machinery operators and drivers. But there are many old people working as technicians or trades workers. The trades are well-known for appealing to youngsters on account of that many of their workers will soon retire.
| Variable | Voting New Conservative 2020 |
| Has no children | -0.54 |
| Has one child | -0.21 |
| Has two children | 0.65 |
| Has three children | 0.61 |
| Has four children | 0.26 |
| Has five children | -0.07 |
| Has six or more children | -0.24 |
The correlations between voting New Conservative in 2020 and having children are the strongest for having two children (0.65) or having three children (0.61). This is not surprising given the age of New Conservative voters. Those who have no children, or only one, tend to be much younger and less religious.
Being mostly white, New Conservative voters are significantly less likely to have six or more children. The correlation between voting New Conservative in 2020 and having six or more children was -0.24. The correlation between voting National in 2020 and having six or more children was, however, -0.59, so New Conservative voters are relatively fecund by that measure.
In summary, New Conservative voters represent a kind of old-school masculinity that perhaps hasn’t adjusted well to changing times. This is best shown by the strong negative correlation of -0.66 between voting New Conservative in 2020 and casting a special vote for Yes in the cannabis referendum.
New Conservative voters tend to be old, white, male, poorly educated and Christian. As such, they are very much the same demographic targeted by the American Republican Party in their “Southern Strategy”. Such voters are not as numerous in New Zealand as in America, but there might still be enough of them to get New Conservative over the 5% in 2023.
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This article is an excerpt from the upcoming 3rd Edition of Understanding New Zealand, by Dan McGlashan and published by VJM Publishing. Understanding New Zealand is the comprehensive guide to the demographics and voting patterns of the New Zealand people.
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Has Leighton Baker ever been fingered?
I think he does the fingering.
Come on me.