The Advance NZ Party was one of the most interesting phenomena of the 2020 General Election. We at VJM Publishing were among the first to document the rise of Billy TK and Jami-Lee Ross’s populist vehicle. Ultimately, they won 28,429 party votes, giving them 1.0% of the total, and did not win an electorate seat, and therefore failed to get into Parliament.
In short, most Advance NZ voters were poorly-educated Boomers.
| Variable | Advance NZ vote 2020 |
| No qualifications | 0.65 |
| Level 1 certificate | 0.74 |
| Level 2 certificate | 0.71 |
| Level 3 certificate | -0.04 |
| Level 4 certificate | 0.78 |
| Level 5 diploma | 0.56 |
| Level 6 diploma | -0.12 |
| Bachelor’s degree | -0.71 |
| Honours degree | -0.63 |
| Master’s degree | -0.66 |
| Doctorate | -0.54 |
There were very strong positive correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and belonging to any of the three lowest educational groups. The correlation between having no academic qualifications and voting Advance NZ in 2020 was 0.65, and with having only NZQA Level 1 or 2 the correlations were even more strongly positive.
The correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and having a university degree, by contrast, were all -0.54 or greater. The correlation between having a Bachelor’s degree in particular and voting Advance NZ in 2020 was -0.71, revealing that very, very few people from this demographic found any appeal in AdvanceNZ.
Advance NZ actually had the most poorly educated voters of any party. Even ALCP, New Zealand First, ONE Party and Vision NZ voters were more likely to have advanced past the lowest NZQA levels, as well as being more likely to have a university degree.
The obvious explanation for this is that the Advance NZ campaign appealed specifically to the gullible and easily manipulated. Those capable of telling truth from lies were generally aware that Billy TK and Jami-Lee Ross were charlatans.
| Variable | Advance NZ vote 2020 |
| 20-24 years old | -0.43 |
| 25-29 years old | -0.47 |
| 30-34 years old | -0.55 |
| 35-39 years old | -0.65 |
| 40-44 years old | -0.49 |
| 45-49 years old | -0.24 |
| 50-54 years old | -0.00 |
| 55-59 years old | 0.28 |
| 60-64 years old | 0.30 |
| 65-69 years old | 0.33 |
| 70-74 years old | 0.29 |
| 75-79 years old | 0.22 |
| 80-84 years old | 0.11 |
| 85+ years old | -0.04 |
Boomers supported Advance NZ more than any other demographic did. All of the age brackets in the Boomer generation (i.e. those aged between 55 and 74 years old) had a significant positive correlation with voting Advance NZ in 2020. By contrast, all of the age brackets under 50 years of age had a significant negative correlation with voting Advance NZ in 2020.
It may seem strange that support for Advance NZ was so strong among Boomers but much weaker among those in older generations. The reason for this is because Advance NZ mostly recruited online, and therefore recruited many of the “terminally online” Boomers that have voted for anti-Establishment parties in other countries.
The reason for this is probably education. There are a lot of Boomers in New Zealand who are poorly educated but who lack the humility to understand that. As such, they are especially vulnerable to hysteria, especially of the religious kind that Billy TK was pushing.
| Variable | Advance NZ vote 2020 |
| No religion | 0.33 |
| Buddhism | -0.69 |
| Christianity | -0.29 |
| Hinduism | -0.54 |
| Islam | -0.55 |
| Judaism | -0.49 |
| Maori religions | 0.63 |
| Spiritualism and New Age | 0.44 |
Perhaps surprisingly, then, given the correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being poorly-educated and old, and given Billy TK’s preacher’s persona, there were relatively few Christians among Advance NZ voters. The correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being Christian was, in fact, significantly negative, at -0.29.
There was a significant negative correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being any of Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, Muslim or Jewish. By contrast, there were significant positive correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and having no religion (0.33), being a Spiritualist or New Ager (0.44) or following one of the Maori religions (0.63).
What explains these correlations is that most Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, Muslims and Jews are foreign-born, and most Spiritualists, New Agers or followers of Maori religions are New Zealand-born, and Advance NZ voters were very likely to be New Zealand-born.
| Variable | Advance NZ vote 2020 |
| New Zealand-born | 0.72 |
Advance NZ had the highest proportion of New Zealand-born voters of any party in 2020, even more than the ALCP. The main reason for this is probably that Advance NZ had two Maori leaders. As New Zealand First has shown for a few decades, foreign-born voters don’t like to vote for Maori leaders.
Given that the immigration system favours young and well-educated people, it follows naturally that a party with a poorly-educated and old demographic will have disproportionately many New Zealand-born voters.
| Variable | Advance NZ vote 2020 |
| ACC or private work insurance | 0.78 |
| NZ Super or Veteran’s pension | 0.33 |
| Jobseeker Support | 0.55 |
| Sole Parent Support | 0.49 |
| Supported Living Payment | 0.32 |
| Student Allowance | -0.33 |
There are significant positive correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being on any main benefit apart from the Student Allowance. The most extreme was between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being on ACC or private work insurance, which was 0.78. There was a significant negative correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being on the Student Allowance, however.
These correlations can be easily explained by degree of disenfranchisement.
As previous analyses in this volume have shown, people who receive the Student Allowance recipients are unlike other beneficiaries.
People on the Jobseeker Support, the Sole Parent Support or the Supported Living Payment are some of the most disenfranchised in all of society. People on the Student Allowance, by contrast, tend to be from middle-class families, as it’s mostly middle-class families who produce the sort of children who aspire to tertiary education.
As a result, Student Allowance recipients often vote like highly educated and highly productive people, despite being beneficiaries, who are usually neither. This explains why there is a significant negative correlation between receiving a Student Allowance and voting Advance NZ in 2020, at the same time as a significant positive correlation between receiving any other benefit and voting Advance NZ in 2020.
| Variable | Voting Advance NZ 2020 |
| Voting Labour 2020 | -0.19 |
| Voting National 2020 | -0.13 |
| Voting Greens 2020 | -0.36 |
| Voting ACT 2020 | 0.02 |
| Voting New Zealand First 2020 | 0.71 |
| Voting New Conservative 2020 | 0.12 |
| Voting TOP 2020 | -0.36 |
| Voting Maori Party 2020 | 0.47 |
| Voting Sustainable NZ 2020 | -0.17 |
| Voting ALCP 2020 | 0.68 |
| Voting TEA Party 2020 | -0.47 |
| Voting Heartland NZ 2020 | -0.01 |
| Voting Social Credit 2020 | 0.30 |
| Voting NZ Outdoors Party 2020 | 0.51 |
| Voting ONE Party 2020 | 0.39 |
| Voting Vision NZ Party 2020 | 0.34 |
The outsider nature of the Advance NZ movement can be easily seen from the fact that voting Advance NZ in 2020 was not significantly positively correlated with voting for any of the four major parties in 2020. Voting Advance NZ in 2020 and voting Greens in 2020 was significantly negatively correlated, at -0.36. The only positive correlation of these four was between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and voting ACT in 2020, which was not significant at 0.02.
These four correlations underline the extent to which Advance NZ was a protest movement that looked for votes from otherwise disenfranchised people.
Supporting this conclusion are the strong correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and voting for any of the other traditionally protest parties. With voting NZ First in 2020 the correlation was 0.71, with voting ALCP in 2020 it was 0.68, with voting NZ Outdoors Party in 2020 it was 0.51 and with voting Maori Party in 2020 it was 0.47.
The parties whose voters were least like Advance NZ voters were the highly urbanised ones. The correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and voting for another party in 2020 was -0.47 in the case of the TEA Party, and -0.36 in the case of either TOP or the Greens.
| Variable | Voting Advance NZ 2020 |
| European | 0.19 |
| Maori | 0.63 |
| Pacific Islander | -0.21 |
| Asian | -0.69 |
The four correlations in the table above demonstrate that support for Advance NZ in 2020 was more complicated than just education.
The fact that Advance NZ voters tended to be poorly educated might explain why there is a strong positive correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being Maori (who tend to be poorly educated) and a strong negative correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being Asian (who tend to be well educated).
However, if education level was the only predictive factor, it would be impossible to explain why the correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being European (0.19) was positive whereas the correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being a Pacific Islander (-0.21) was negative.
The truth is that Advance NZ voters tended to come from the disenfranchised nationalist underclass that also produces a lot of New Zealand First voters. Hence, the presence of Advance NZ in the 2020 General Election may have been one of the reasons for the relatively poor New Zealand First result that year.
| Variable | Voting Advance NZ 2020 |
| Living in an urban electorate | -0.56 |
This chapter so far has already established the outsider nature of Advance NZ voters. Given that, it’s little surprise to see a strong negative correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and living in an urban electorate. Advance NZ voters are as physically outside of society as they are emotionally outside it.
Indeed, the strongest negative correlation between living in an urban electorate and voting for any party in 2020 was with voting Advance NZ, at -0.56. This was even stronger than the correlations between living in an urban electorate and voting for other outsider parties such as New Zealand First or Outdoors NZ in 2020 (both parties -0.43).
This, perhaps more than any other statistic, underlines the extent to which Advance NZ voters live far away from the levers of power. Their sudden rise could be taken as a sign that there is significant dissatisfaction with the way New Zealand is being run, and their fall is good news for the other protest parties and for New Zealand First in particular, who stand to pick up the voters.
| Variable | Voting Advance NZ 2020 |
| Working as a manager | 0.04 |
| Working as a professional | -0.61 |
| Working as a technician or trades worker | 0.31 |
| Working as a community or personal services worker | 0.38 |
| Working as a clerical or administrative worker | -0.48 |
| Working as a sales worker | -0.36 |
| Working as a machinery operator or driver | 0.31 |
| Working as a labourer | 0.63 |
Fitting with the picture of Advance NZ voters as poorly educated, there was a strong negative correlation of -0.61 between voting Advance NZ 2020 and working as a professional. However, there was also a significant negative correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and working as a clerical or administrative worker (-0.48) or a sales worker (-0.36), which are not typically highly-educated professions.
The explanation for this apparent paradox is that Advance NZ did poorly among typically urban professions in general, because urbanites tend to be “in” (the system) whereas rural dwellers tend to be “out” of it.
Consequently, there was a significant positive correlation between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and working in a number of typically disenfranchised professions, such as labourer (0.63), community or personal services worker (0.38), machinery operator or driver (0.31) ot technician or trades worker (0.31).
The most difficult correlation to explain is that of voting Advance NZ in 2020 and working as a manager (0.04). On the one hand, managers are not disenfranchised, and are therefore unlike the typical Advance NZ voter. But on the other hand, managers don’t usually need to be well-educated, rather determined and stress-tolerant. So in comparison to those who work as professional, managers are more likely to fall for huckstering.
| Variable | Voting Advance NZ 2020 |
| Working in agriculture, forestry or fishing | 0.54 |
| Working in mining | 0.38 |
| Working in manufacturing | 0.25 |
| Working in electricity, gas, water or wastewater | 0.20 |
| Working in construction | 0.45 |
| Working in wholesale trade | -0.45 |
| Working in retail trade | 0.06 |
| Working in accommodation or food services | -0.04 |
| Working in transport, postal or warehousing | 0.14 |
| Working in information media or telecommunications | -0.58 |
| Working in financial or insurance services | -0.64 |
| Working in rental, hiring or real estate services | -0.21 |
| Working in professional, scientific or technical services | -0.63 |
| Working in administrative or support services | -0.03 |
| Working in public administration or safety | -0.20 |
| Working in education or training | -0.11 |
| Working in healthcare or social assistance | 0.15 |
| Working in arts or recreation services | -0.10 |
When it comes to industry, the most powerful predictive factor is once again relatively poor education of the average Advance NZ voter.
There are strong negative correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and working in a typically high-skilled industry such as financial or insurance services (-0.64), professional, scientific or technical services (-0.63) or information media or telecommunications (-0.58).
By contrast, there are significant positive correlations between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and working in a typically low-skilled industry such as agriculture, forestry or fishing (0.54), construction (0.45), mining (0.38) or manufacturing (0.25).
There’s more to this than being rural, New Zealand-born and poorly educated. There’s a certain type of person who is disenfranchised enough that they turn to wild conspiracy theories (as opposed to accurate conspiracy theories) in order to explain their lot. These unfortunates are prone to paranoid distrust, which can make them see saviour figures in men like Billy TK and Jami-Lee Ross.
| Variable | Voting Advance NZ 2020 |
| Married (not separated) | -0.17 |
| Divorced/separated/widowed | 0.56 |
| Never married | -0.04 |
There was a strong positive correlation of 0.56 between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being divorced/separated/widowed. Voting for a particular party in 2020 was also strongly positively correlated with being divorced/separated/widowed in the case of New Zealand First (0.64), NZ Outdoors Party (0.52) and New Conservative (0.47).
This points to a moderate to high level of disagreeability among Advance NZ voters. This disagreeability could contribute to the sense of outsidership that motivates a person to vote for an outsider party like Advance NZ.
All these correlations fill in our picture of the average Advance NZ voter. The sort of person who votes Advance NZ is the sort of person who spends a lot of time on the Internet, and who doesn’t have much in the way of competing interests such as a job or an education. A correlation of 0.56 between voting Advance NZ in 2020 and being divorced, separated or widowed paints a picture of a reasonably unhappy, reasonably socially isolated Boomer.
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This article is an excerpt from the upcoming 3rd Edition of Understanding New Zealand, by Dan McGlashan and published by VJM Publishing. Understanding New Zealand is the comprehensive guide to the demographics and voting patterns of the New Zealand people.
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If you enjoyed reading this essay/article, you can get a compilation of the Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2019 from Amazon for Kindle or Amazon for CreateSpace (for international readers), or TradeMe (for Kiwis). A compilation of the Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2018 and the Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2017 are also available.
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