The Maori Party won 33,630 votes in the 2020 General Election, for 1.17% of the total vote. They have been getting a lot of media coverage recently, and have been climbing in the polls as a result, and are now looking to expand their support into previously untapped demographics. This chapter explains who voted for them in 2020.
The obvious assumption is that Maori people vote for The Maori Party, but it’s not as simple as that. For one thing, a significant number of non-Maoris vote for The Maori Party. For another, the Maoris who do vote for The Maori Party are not necessarily representative of the Maori population as a whole.
This chapter will therefore focus mostly on the differences between the average Maori Party voter and the average Maori, and not on the differences between the average Maori Party voter and the average Kiwi. Generally speaking, the average Maori Party voter is significantly more enfranchised than the average Maori, and this is characteristic of the difference between the two populations.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party in 2020 |
| European | -0.31 |
| Maori | 0.91 |
| Pacific Islander | 0.06 |
| Asian | -0.32 |
Some Kiwis of European descent and Asians vote for The Maori Party on account of general anti-Establishment sentiments. To some, it feels as if Labour, National, The Greens and ACT are all part of the one Establishment. Some votes for The Maori Party, then, are effectively protest votes. Some Pacific Islanders might have voted for The Maori Party on account of general pan-Polynesian sentiments.
The support of any of these three racial groups, however, were dwarfed by Maori support for The Maori Party. The correlation between being Maori and voting for The Maori Party in 2020 was 0.91, one of the strongest in this entire survey.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party in 2020 | Being Maori |
| Voting Labour in 2020 | -0.37 | -0.33 |
| Voting National in 2020 | -0.71 | -0.65 |
| Voting Greens in 2020 | -0.15 | -0.27 |
| Voting ACT in 2020 | -0.64 | -0.58 |
| Voting NZF in 2020 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| Voting New Conservative in 2020 | -0.57 | -0.44 |
| Voting ALCP in 2020 | 0.81 | 0.88 |
| Voting Advance NZ in 2020 | 0.47 | 0.63 |
Curiously, there was a significant negative correlation between voting Maori Party in 2020 and voting either Labour in 2020 (-0.37) or voting National in 2020 (-0.71). The least strong negative correlation between voting Maori Party in 2020 and voting for any of the four other Parliamentary parties in 2020 was with The Greens, at -0.15.
Two of the most striking correlations are these: 0.81 between voting Maori Party in 2020 and voting ALCP in 2020, and 0.88 between being Maori and voting ALCP in 2020. Considering that cannabis prohibition is one of the best examples of a colonial law that disproportionately harms Maori people, one might think there was a great opportunity there for The Maori Party to oppose it.
Some might be surprised to see such an overlap between Maori Party voters and New Zealand First voters. After all, the former are characterised in the mainstream media as far-left extremists and the latter as far-right extremists. The reality is that the former are Maori nationalists and the latter are Kiwi nationalists, and because so many Kiwis are Maori and because white Kiwi nationalists are usually pro-Maori, the two populations have much in common.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party in 2020 | Being Maori |
| No qualifications | 0.34 | 0.53 |
| Level 1 certificate | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| Level 2 certificate | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| Level 3 certificate | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| Level 4 certificate | 0.33 | 0.52 |
| Level 5 diploma | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| Level 6 diploma | -0.64 | -0.67 |
| Bachelor’s degree | -0.34 | -0.53 |
| Honour’s degree | -0.38 | -0.55 |
| Master’s degree | -0.31 | -0.50 |
| Doctorate | -0.28 | -0.43 |
Maori Party voters are much better educated than the average Maori. Not only are they much more likely to have gone past high school, they’re also much more likely to have a degree.
Maori Party voters were significantly less likely to have a university degree than the average Kiwi, but none of the correlations between voting Maori Party in 2020 and having any of the degrees were stronger than -0.38. By contrast, all of the correlations between being Maori and having any of the degrees were stronger than -0.43.
These correlations reveal the basic truth about Maori Party voters: they represent the Maori elite, and are in many ways more like middle-class white people than they are like the average Maori.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party in 2020 | Being Maori |
| Living urban | -0.26 | -0.39 |
Maori Party voters are much more urban than Maori people in general. This is a useful clue when it comes to understanding the average Maori Party voter.
Urban life tends to be cosmopolitan and therefore tends to cultivate pro-globalist sentiments. So if Maori Party voters are more urban, they can be expected to have some globalist sympathies. The average rural Maori is much more likely to favour New Zealand First than the Maori Party.
Urban areas are also where the power is, and the fact that Maori Party voters are more likely to be urbanites than Maoris in general demonstrates the extent to which Maori Party voters are more enfranchised.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party in 2020 | Being Maori |
| Median income | -0.11 | -0.30 |
| Mean income | -0.08 | -0.25 |
Maori Party voters in 2020 were significantly wealthier than Maoris in general. In fact, the average Maori Party voter in 2020 was not much poorer than the average New Zealander. The average Maori, by contrast, is significantly poorer.
Understanding the correlations of education and wealth, a distinct class division within Maoridom becomes evident. The majority of Maoris tend to vote for the Labour and New Zealand First parties, and these make up the broad Maori masses. The Maori elites, who expect to be granted Government subsidies and handouts, tend to vote for The Maori Party.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party in 2020 | Being Maori |
| Managers | -0.36 | -0.36 |
| Professionals | -0.27 | -0.43 |
| Technicians and Trades Workers | -0.07 | 0.03 |
| Community and Personal Service Workers | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| Clerical and Administrative Workers | -0.19 | -0.27 |
| Sales Workers | -0.04 | -0.15 |
| Machinery Operators and Drivers | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| Labourers | 0.42 | 0.58 |
In comparison to the average Maori, the average Maori Party voter is much more likely to be a professional or a clerical and administrative worker, and much less likely to be a technician and trades worker, a machinery operator or driver or a labourer.
This reinforces the class narrative noted above. Maori Party voters are much more likely to be independent professionals or important members of the Government machinery, whereas Maoris in general are more likely to have working-class professions.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party 2020 | Being Maori |
| Working in agriculture, forestry or fishing | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| Working in mining | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Working in manufacturing | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| Working in electricity, gas, water and waste | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| Working in construction | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| Working in wholesale trade | -0.21 | -0.31 |
| Working in retail trade | -0.15 | -0.15 |
| Working in accommodation and food services | 0.04 | -0.05 |
| Working in transport, postal and warehousing | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| Working in information media and telecommunications | -0.14 | -0.32 |
| Working in financial and insurance services | -0.22 | -0.40 |
| Working in rental, hiring and real estate services | -0.30 | -0.40 |
| Working in professional, scientific and technical services | -0.28 | -0.46 |
| Working in administrative and support services | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| Working in public administration and safety | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Working in education and training | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| Working in healthcare and social assistance | -0.06 | 0.02 |
| Working in arts and recreation services | 0.10 | -0.03 |
Looking at occupations, the pattern mentioned above reappears: the more working-class an occupation is, the fewer Maori Party voters it will have in comparison to Maori people in general.
This is most obvious with occupations such as agriculture, forestry and fishing. The correlation between working in this occupation and voting Maori Party in 2020 (0.06) was much weaker than the correlation between working in this occupation and being Maori (0.23). Similar gaps were seen with manufacturing (0.16 and 0.28, respectively) and electricity, gas, water and waste (0.17 and 0.29, respectively).
The opposite pattern was seen with middle-class occupations. The correlation between working in professional, scientific and technical services and voting Maori Party in 2020 (-0.28) was also much weaker than the correlation between working in this occupation and being Maori (-0.46), only negative. Similar gaps were seen with financial and insurance services (-0.22 and -0.40, respectively) and information media and telecommunications (-0.14 and -0.32, respectively).
This supports the tendency that Maori Party voters tend to be more middle-class than Maori people in general.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party in 2020 | Being Maori |
| % VAP Enrolled | -0.37 | -0.40 |
| Turnout rate | -0.69 | -0.67 |
Many will be surprised to see that the turnout rate is actually lower for the group voting Maori Party in 2020 than for the group who are Maori. If Maori Party voters are more middle-class than Maori people in general, and if middle-class people vote more often working-class ones, then it seems paradoxical that Maori Party supporters would vote less often than Maori people in general.
The reason why can be explained by the demographics below: Maori Party voters are younger than Maoris in general, and younger people are less likely to vote.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party in 2020 | Being Maori |
| Median age | -0.01 | 0.05 |
| Mean age | 0.01 | 0.04 |
Maori Party voters are slightly younger than Maori people in general. One major reason for this is that The Maori Party is a radical party and young people are more attracted to radical politics. Another major reason is that The Maori Party is a relatively new party, and so has not had time to build lifetime allegiances, in contrast to Labour and New Zealand First. A third reason is that older Maoris tend to be more assimilationist than younger ones.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party in 2020 | Being Maori |
| Married (not separated) | -0.69 | -0.66 |
| Divorced/separated/widowed | -0.11 | 0.09 |
| Never married | 0.65 | 0.56 |
Given that getting married is more common among middle-class Kiwis than among working-class ones, it might come as a surprise that Maori Party voters are less likely to get married than Maori people in general.
The explanation is simple: because Maori Party voters are younger than Maori people in general, they have had less time to get married. This is also why the correlation between never being married and voting Maori Party in 2020 (0.65) was stronger than the correlation between never being married and being Maori (0.56).
The relatively middle-class nature of Maori Party voters reveals itself when comparing the correlation between being divorced/separated/widowed and voting Maori Party in 2020 (-0.11) with the correlation between being divorced/separated/widowed and being Maori (0.09), as middle-class people are, on average, much less likely to get divorced.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party 2020 | Being Maori |
| Own or part own house | -0.43 | -0.32 |
| Own house in family trust | -0.47 | -0.51 |
| Neither ownership nor family trust | 0.53 | 0.45 |
It might come as a surprise to some that the average Maori Party voter is less likely to own their own home than the average Maori, as homeownership is typically middle-class and Maori Party voters tend to be more middle-class than Maoris in general.
However, it can be readily explained by the fact that Maori Party voters are much more urban than Maoris in general, and urban dwellers are more likely to be renters than homeowners. Furthermore, Maori Party voters are younger than Maoris in general. These two factors explain the lower homeownership rates.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party 2020 | Being Maori |
| No children | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| One child | -0.03 | -0.14 |
| Two children | -0.49 | -0.47 |
| Three children | -0.08 | 0.09 |
| Four children | 0.34 | 0.55 |
| Five children | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| Six children | 0.59 | 0.73 |
The average Maori Party voter is significantly less likely to have children than the average Maori. There are multiple reasons for this.
The foremost is the previously-mentioned class differences. Maori Party voters tend to be more middle-class than Maori people in general, and middle-class people have fewer children than working-class ones. There is also an age effect – Maori Party voters tend to be slightly younger than Maori people in general, and therefore have had less time to have children.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party 2020 | Being Maori |
| Income < $5,000 | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| Income $5,000-$10,000 | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| Income $10,000-$20,000 | 0.39 | 0.59 |
| Income $20,000-$30,000 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| Income $30,000-$50,000 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Income $50,000-$70,000 | -0.40 | -0.48 |
| Income > $70,000 | -0.35 | -0.51 |
As mentioned in the previously discussed correlations, Maori Party voters tend to be more middle-class than Maori people in general. This is reflected everywhere, including (as most would expect) in income.
Although the average Maori Party voter was more likely than the average Maori to fall into the lowest income bands (those below $10,000), this can be explained by the fact that Maori Party voters are more likely to be students. The average Maori is considerably more likely to belong to the bands typical for working-class Kiwis ($10,000-$50,000).
The largest gap was with the correlation between having an income above $70,000 and voting Maori Party in 2020 (-0.35) and between having an income above $70,000 and being Maori (-0.51). This demonstrates that, all other things being equal, the wealthier a Maori person is, the more likely they are to vote Maori Party.
| Variable | Voting Maori Party 2020 | Being Maori |
| Being male | -0.08 | -0.06 |
Other commentators have previously observed that Maori Party voters tend to be more female than male. This mystifies some because there’s no obvious reason why Maori Party policy should appeal more to women than to men.
The explanation is that Maoris in general tend to be more female than male. This is owing to the relatively high death rate among Maori males, a function of high rates of alcohol use, extremely high rates of tobacco use, and disproportionate rates of suicide. As such, because of the extremely strong correlation between being Maori and being a Maori Party voter, it follows that most Maori Party voters are female.
In summary, Maori Party voters occupy similar demographics to Maoris in general, which is unsurprising given the strength of the correlation between the two populations.
The main difference between Maori Party voters and Maoris in general is that the former are more globalist, the latter more nationalist. This is a function of the fact that Maori Party voters are much more part of the Establishment than the average Maori is. The more that any given Maori individual is likely to be close to the levers of power, the more likely they are to vote Maori Party.
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This article is an excerpt from the upcoming 3rd Edition of Understanding New Zealand, by Dan McGlashan and published by VJM Publishing. Understanding New Zealand is the comprehensive guide to the demographics and voting patterns of the New Zealand people.
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