VJMP Predicts 2025!

Another calendar year ends; it’s time for VJM Publishing to predict the next one. Our predictions for last year went reasonably well – maybe we can do better?

It’s easy to predict that the world, especially the Western World, keeps going down the toilet. This is hardly a prediction and more of an extrapolation of trends that we’re all familiar with. Thus, this article will make some more specific predictions.

Most specifically, these predictions suggest that the biggest changes in 2025 will be inside people’s minds more than outside in the world.

VJMP predicts a massive increase in the use of alternatives to alcohol in 2025. This has already been hinted at with the ‘California Sober‘ phenomenon. At least some major Hollywood or other celebrities will come out and say they have given up alcohol for cannabis. Alcohol will come to be seen as trashy by many, especially young people.

Alternatives to pharmaceuticals will generally become popular, following from increasing awareness of the side-effects of antidepressants and antipsychotics. Many will realise that, against received wisdom, cannabis is actually good for most mental illnesses, especially when taken in the form of CBD (cannabidiol) oil.

We can also predict a massive decrease in support for Establishment parties in the West. So much so that the Establishment takes measures to crack down on free speech. Specifically, we predict that some major European countries (probably Britain) will ban X and other free-speech platforms, rather than continue to face criticisms.

Related to this, we predict mass demonstrations against the Establishment in 2025. At least one of these demonstrations will spiral out of control and lead to government crackdowns. Rioting will paralyse some major cities in America and Europe for days.

In general, politics will return to the streets. The tendency since the Howard Dean primary campaign of 2004 has been for ever more online politics. But, in recent years, online spaces have been censored so hard that only approved messages get through. This will mean that people return to meatspace. Politics will go back to town halls, rallies and info stalls on major shopping streets.

Perhaps our grimmest prediction is that suicides will hit record highs in 2025. This will be a function of a low value placed on life, economic malaise and general existential angst. The night is darkest before the dawn, and the Sun isn’t rising just yet. This record suicide rate will particularly afflict the under-35s, who will be driven even further into despair by housing unaffordability.

Some more specific predictions can be made.

We can predict at least one major assassination. Assassinations were a feature of the end of the Roman Empire, with the degenerate nature of Roman society causing a lack of appreciation for the value of life. There’s also such a lack of appreciation in the Clown World of 2025. We have already seen the lionisation of Luigi Mangione after his shooting of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. An assassination of a major industrialist, on the Musk/Zuckerberg/Gates/Brin/Page level, is more possible in 2025 than at any time after the Gilded Age.

Related to this loss in appreciation for the value of life, we predict America to go to war against Iran in some form. This will not be because Trump wants it, but because America gets drawn in by the realities of power. America might get tricked into it by Israel. It might be that Israel bombs themselves and blames Iran for it.

We predict Trump to take office without incident, but for the fireworks to begin after this. There will be a return of Black Lives Matter and other leftist authoritarian movements. They will play a major role in the rioting predicted above, and may also be involved in the assassination. In either case, the masses will start noticing the globalist hands pulling the Antifa strings.

In the tech world, we predict the demise of Google Search, replaced by relatively uncensored AI alternatives such as Grok. FaceBook will also die, for similar reasons. Censorship – and having a reputation for censorship – will kill several billion-dollar platforms as genuine free-speech alternatives become popular. A free-speech alternative to Amazon, carrying thousands of books that Amazon refuses to sell, may arise.

AI will become powerful enough that 15-year olds can make movies good enough to earn millions (hat tip: JR Mooneyham). People that young will also make some influential video clips and music.

In New Zealand, we predict that the Sixth National Government will collapse due to a falling out between New Zealand First and ACT along nationalist-globalist lines. Winston Peters will realise that 2025 is his last chance to take a stand against globalist encroachment, and will force a snap election. Despite this skullduggery, New Zealand First will get voted out. A new populist nationalist movement will take this space in Parliament.

In Europe, we predict the ongoing rise of left-wing nationalism along the Sahra Wagenknecht model. This will rise not at the expense of right-wing nationalists, who will continue to support parties like the AfD, but of left-wing globalists like the SPD and the Greens. These left-wing globalist parties will suffer from a strong shift towards anti-immigration sentiments.

In Asia, we predict a minor military incident to be blown out of proportion by Western media in an effort to manufacture consent for a war against China. This warmongering will be a feature of Western media propaganda for the whole of 2025, as European powers look to take down Russia and the Anglo colonies look to take down China.

On top of all this, we predict general weirdness to increase. Highly surreal occurrences will make billions of people question their grip on reality. Undiagnosed schizophrenia will hit levels unprecedented in modern history.

For more of VJM’s ideas, see his work on other platforms!
For even more of VJM’s ideas, buy one of his books!

If you enjoyed reading this piece, buy a compilation of our best pieces from previous years!

Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2023
Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2022
Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2021
Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2020
Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2019
Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2018
Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2017

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‘California Sober’: Could It Catch On In New Zealand?

Many lifestyle trends that originate in California then spread to the rest of the world. This is because California is where the Spear of Destiny is: the focal point of world cultural influence. The West Coast of America has more soft power than anywhere else on Earth. The latest trend that might spread from there to the rest of the world is called California Sober.

Many people say that life is best with no drugs at all. But for many others, this isn’t realistic. Billions of people feel the need to use chemical assistance to take the edge off the intensity of life on this planet. For those living outside the Abrahamic moral paradigm, using recreational drugs is no more immoral than seasoning one’s food.

The term ‘California Sober’ refers to a lifestyle in which one still uses drugs, but in such a manner that one does very little harm. In fact, one does roughly as little harm as a sober person. The main aspect of the lifestyle is to abstain from the typical drugs of destruction, in particular large amounts of alcohol. In this lifestyle, cannabis replaces alcohol as the go-to everyday social lubricant.

In contrast to the puritanical forms of sobriety so common to the West, in which all psychoactive substances are considered from the devil, California Sober usually involves indulgent cannabis use, with the occasional use of alcohol or psychedelics. Alcohol is still used, but sparingly, such as for celebrations. Psychedelics are also used sparingly, but more for spiritual or mental health reasons.

This arrangement is not merely a fashion. It reflects actual psychological and medical science. Professor David Nutt, perhaps the world’s foremost expert on relative drug harms, conducted a study that found alcohol to be the most harmful drug of all. Figure 3 in this paper (link goes to .pdf) suggests that alcohol is twice as harmful to other people as heroin, and about as harmful to the user as heroin, crack cocaine or methamphetamine.

According to Prof. Nutt’s research, cannabis is less harmful than tobacco, and much, much less harmful than alcohol. Magic mushrooms are considered by this research to be the least harmful of all those surveyed.

The logic of the California Sober lifestyle is to take this modern science into account when making recreational drug choices. As such, the use of alcohol is much less common in comparison to wider Western society. The use of cannabis and psychedelics, by contrast, is much more common.

The lifestyle hasn’t been designed by the dispassionate scientific analysis of a few elites, though. It is, for the most part, an organic development.

Many people have found that they like to use alcohol to take the edge off the stress of daily life, but they really don’t like the side-effects of alcohol: the sickness, the bloating, the hangovers, the mental dullness. For them, cannabis does the job of taking the edge off without the physical suffering.

For these people, replacing alcohol with cannabis seems like an obvious idea.

Some Kiwis, your author among them, have been living California Sober for a while already. I worked as a barman for several years to help pay for university, but by the time I graduated I had come to realise that cannabis was a better lifestyle choice than alcohol for many reasons. Foremost among these reasons: cannabis users seemed much less prone to violence and sluttery.

Using more cannabis, I found that I felt a lot better physically than I did using alcohol. So phasing out the alcohol seemed like a natural choice. Occasional psychedelic use, usually to mark a solstice or equinox, also seems like a natural choice. I believe that many people, if given the freedom to do so, would live a lifestyle similar to this.

The main difficulty with leading this lifestyle in New Zealand, of course, is the law.

Cannabis has been fully legal in California since 2016, the year 57% of Californians voted to legalise it at referendum. New Zealand, unfortunately, voted away our chance at cannabis freedom in 2020. As such, we are now eight years behind California, and counting. It’s not likely that the Sixth National Government will change the cannabis laws, and they might not lose power until 2029 (assuming they win three terms, as National governments tend to do). So New Zealand probably won’t get legal cannabis until 15 or 16 years after California.

Despite this, cannabis is easy to get in New Zealand – Kiwis are some of the world’s heaviest users of it. Thus it’s possible to live a California Sober lifestyle here, but not with the same level of acceptance as in North America. Moreover, medicinal cannabis is now very easy to access in New Zealand.

Most of the reasons that caused the California Sober lifestyle to become popular in North America also apply to New Zealand. We also have severe problems with physical, mental and social damage caused by alcohol, and would benefit from a shift to lower-harm substances. It may be that natural adoption of this lifestyle among Kiwis is what eventually forces a change to the cannabis laws.

For more of VJM’s ideas, see his work on other platforms!
For even more of VJM’s ideas, buy one of his books!

If you enjoyed reading this piece, buy a compilation of our best pieces from previous years!

If you would like to support our work in other ways, make a donation to our Paypal! Even better, buy any one of our books!

The Deep Implications Of The Recent Thuringen Election

The Free State of Thuringia is one of the sixteen states in the German federal republic, with a population just over 2.1 million. Normally, little of importance would come from Thuringen – but the state elections earlier this month have upset that. The much-feared Alternative fuer Deutschland party – regularly dismissed as neo-Nazis by the opinion-shapers in the mainstream media – won 33% of the total vote, taking first place.

Mainstream commentators were aghast at the AfD’s success, labelling it a return of Nazism. But in the hysteria over the AfD result, other results with deep implications have been missed.

One of the most striking of these was the Buendnis Sahra Wagenknecht winning 15.7%.

The BSW is also nationalist and also opposes Germany getting sucked into the war in Ukraine. Hence, they are as anti-Establishment as the AfD. But, unlike the AfD, they are a leftist movement that wants to empower the negotiating position of workers, and which has no interest in the Christian dogma so common to alternative right movements (the BSW also lists ‘reason’ as one of its two core values).

Sahra Wagenknecht is a former top-ranking Die Linke (The Left) candidate, which means that she’s coming from a very leftist perspective. If the AfD had done well and the BSW not, it might be possible to blame everything on TikTok. But because the BSW also did so well, it’s impossible to speak of a “right-wing wave”. The BSW winning over 15% shows that support for nationalism, not just support for the AfD, is what’s rising.

Perhaps the most striking change from the previous election was the collapse of Die Linke. They were the biggest party in 2019, with 31% of the total vote. Their 2024 vote was a much humbler 13%. The vast bulk of this fall can be attributed to the rise of the BSW, which didn’t exist in 2019.

In total, the nationalist bloc of AfD and BSW won 48.7% of the Thuringen vote, more than the 47% for the globalist bloc of CDU (23.6%), Die Linke (13%), SPD (6.1%), Gruene (3.2%) and FDP (1.1%). Nationalists outpolling globalists in a Western European region the size of Thuringen is something unprecedented since World War II. Since that war, nationalists have been reduced to small minorities. For them to become the majority again, anywhere, came as a shock to many.

Even more shocking was the voting breakdown.

The first result of note here was that some 49% of working-class voters in Thuringen voted AfD, and a further 16% voted BSW. This means that 65% of working-class voters went for a nationalist party, as opposed to a mere 30% for the five major globalists.

This is a remarkable result because it speaks to the extent to which working-class people feel themselves betrayed by the globalist establishment, in particular the leftist globalist establishment.

One of the issues that forced Sahra Wagenknecht out of Die Linke (along with COVID-19 measures and Ukraine/Russia policy) was German refugee policy. Die Linke supported the globalist approach of constantly and permanently increasing the refugee quota. Wagenknecht abandoned Die Linke in the belief that many left-wing voters would prefer a nationalist option to a globalist one, and she has been vindicated by this month’s polling.

Of even more import is the fact that this process has just begun. The AfD has been around for a while but the BSW is new. If they can already poll this high in a regional election, they can dream of doing so at a federal level. Then the possibility arises of an AfD-BSW coalition ruling Germany.

The second result of note here relates to age. If one looks only at voters aged 18-24, who are traditionally globalist left voters, we can see a radical seachange towards nationalism. 55% of men and 46% of women in this age group voted for one of the two nationalist parties.

The only real supporters of the establishment now are the Boomers whose rental property portfolios and stock portfolios are the prime beneficiaries of mass immigration. The Western ruling classes have denied for 80 years that mass immigration leads to higher rents and lower wages, but the people of West widely understand now, and the working-class understands well. Many of those people are now desperate for an anti-establishment alternative.

As the Boomers continue to die off over the next decade, globalist sentiments in the West will continue to weaken further. Those who believe that nationalists are only rising because of social media may succeed in banning that social media to a major extent. But they won’t stop what’s coming, because it’s not a social media phenomenon. It’s the inevitable end consequence of many tens of millions of unpleasant encounters with the diversity that the globalists have imported.

These results of note, taken together, suggest that the vast majority of young, working-class men in Thuringen are now nationalist. Perhaps then, a smaller majority of young, working-class men in the West in general might be nationalist. This means that the nationalist forces now control the loyalties of the precise demographics needed to control the streets – or overthrow the government.

For more of VJM’s ideas, see his work on other platforms!
For even more of VJM’s ideas, buy one of his books!

If you enjoyed reading this piece, buy a compilation of our best pieces from previous years!

If you would like to support our work in other ways, make a donation to our Paypal! Even better, buy any one of our books!

The Inevitability Of The Maori Party, And Of Race Politics

This month’s Roy Morgan poll didn’t appear to contain any major news. There were no significant shifts since last time. But, buried two-thirds of the way down the page, some highly interesting facts lurked: evidence of a remorseless trend towards social discord in New Zealand. This trend is the rise of racial consciousness, and its replacement of class consciousness.

It can be seen from the above image that, among Kiwis younger than 50, the Maori Party has close to 10% support. This is an astonishing level of support for an ethnonationalist party, especially considering that Maoris make up less than 20% of the population. Even if one allows for 25% of the population aged between 18 and 49 being Maori, and one assumes that almost no non-Maoris vote Maori Party, 10% total support means some 40% Maori Party support among Maoris aged 18-49.

Dedicated Roy Morgan poll watchers might have already noticed the trend towards Maori Party support increasing among the young over recent years. It has not only increased, but is unstoppable.

All over the Western World, class consciousness is dying, and getting replaced by race consciousness. VJM Publishing has written about this phenomenon before, noting that it’s the result of a deliberate effort by the ruling class to shatter any potential bonds of solidarity among the lower classes.

Applying the Orwellian maxim War is Peace, the ruling classes have deliberately set the lower classes of New Zealand against each other by encouraging them to divide themselves among racial lines. They have done this by suggesting that the average Maori is the victim of the order of society and the average white is the beneficiary. The resentment thus created has seen some Maoris and whites turn on each other, ignoring the hand of the ruling class behind all the discord.

This schedule of suggestion is mostly applied through the education system and popular culture. As a result, the younger a resident of the Western World, the more likely that they see the world through the lens of race, and not class. Young people have been conditioned to think in terms of race, and that’s why so many of them support the Maori Party.

40% support within a major demographic for an ethnonationalist party is something that few Kiwis would have anticipated, had they been asked 25 years ago. Few Kiwis will have anticipated what’s next: the inevitable rise of white racial consciousness.

It’s very bad news for those who wish for unity and stability among the New Zealand populace.

The New Zealand political establishment has done everything it can to pre-empt the rise of white racial consciousness. Their intent to do this was made clear when they sent the Police to my house to intimidate me after I sold ‘It’s Okay To Be White’ t-shirts on TradeMe.

But if working-class white people see the Maori Party getting 10%, they will start asking “Why not us?”.

Working-class white people will not remain slavishly supporting the ruling class if they see Maori people coming together as a Maori race, and getting concessions from the Government on the basis of that racial identity. There are already great numbers of working-class whites who resent that the ruling class helps Maoris more than them, and who would vote for a white identitarian party if one ever stood up.

Already we can see from the table above that the Labour Party – one of the two major parties – polls a mere 18% among the under 50s. Their support base is Boomer women. Among women under 50, Labour gets less support than the Greens. This suggests that support for Labour will continue to decline as the Boomers die off and get replaced by more alternative young people.

If the Maori contingent among those alternative young people vote for an ethnonationalist party that represents them on identitarian lines, the white contingent will also want that. After all, young working-class whites are getting representation as working-class whites all over Europe.

VJM Publishing has been following the rise of the Sweden Democrats for a long time, and the frustration and sense of injustice that impels young working-class whites in Europe to vote for identitarian parties is shared by young working-class whites in New Zealand. They just don’t have a good option yet.

It’s possible that wealthy whites (along with wealthy Asians, Jews and others) keep supporting National and ACT, which collectively develop into a broad ruling class movement. The Maori Party might keep growing, Labour might keep declining into a Pacific Islander party, and then a new, working-class white party will rise to fill the gap.

Whether this will be a good thing or a bad thing cannot be known in advance.

The real solution to all the problems mentioned here: Kiwi nationalism. A fresh formulation of nationalism which saw young Maoris and young white Kiwis as the yin and the yang of a glorious new civilisation whose best time was yet to come. This would allow young Kiwis to come together in support of a common goal, with a understanding of common heritage, free of the petty bickering that has characterised recent decades in New Zealand.

For more of VJM’s ideas, see his work on other platforms!
For even more of VJM’s ideas, buy one of his books!

If you enjoyed reading this piece, buy a compilation of our best pieces from previous years!

If you would like to support our work in other ways, make a donation to our Paypal! Even better, buy any one of our books!