The Inevitability Of The Maori Party, And Of Race Politics

This month’s Roy Morgan poll didn’t appear to contain any major news. There were no significant shifts since last time. But, buried two-thirds of the way down the page, some highly interesting facts lurked: evidence of a remorseless trend towards social discord in New Zealand. This trend is the rise of racial consciousness, and its replacement of class consciousness.

It can be seen from the above image that, among Kiwis younger than 50, the Maori Party has close to 10% support. This is an astonishing level of support for an ethnonationalist party, especially considering that Maoris make up less than 20% of the population. Even if one allows for 25% of the population aged between 18 and 49 being Maori, and one assumes that almost no non-Maoris vote Maori Party, 10% total support means some 40% Maori Party support among Maoris aged 18-49.

Dedicated Roy Morgan poll watchers might have already noticed the trend towards Maori Party support increasing among the young over recent years. It has not only increased, but is unstoppable.

All over the Western World, class consciousness is dying, and getting replaced by race consciousness. VJM Publishing has written about this phenomenon before, noting that it’s the result of a deliberate effort by the ruling class to shatter any potential bonds of solidarity among the lower classes.

Applying the Orwellian maxim War is Peace, the ruling classes have deliberately set the lower classes of New Zealand against each other by encouraging them to divide themselves among racial lines. They have done this by suggesting that the average Maori is the victim of the order of society and the average white is the beneficiary. The resentment thus created has seen some Maoris and whites turn on each other, ignoring the hand of the ruling class behind all the discord.

This schedule of suggestion is mostly applied through the education system and popular culture. As a result, the younger a resident of the Western World, the more likely that they see the world through the lens of race, and not class. Young people have been conditioned to think in terms of race, and that’s why so many of them support the Maori Party.

40% support within a major demographic for an ethnonationalist party is something that few Kiwis would have anticipated, had they been asked 25 years ago. Few Kiwis will have anticipated what’s next: the inevitable rise of white racial consciousness.

It’s very bad news for those who wish for unity and stability among the New Zealand populace.

The New Zealand political establishment has done everything it can to pre-empt the rise of white racial consciousness. Their intent to do this was made clear when they sent the Police to my house to intimidate me after I sold ‘It’s Okay To Be White’ t-shirts on TradeMe.

But if working-class white people see the Maori Party getting 10%, they will start asking “Why not us?”.

Working-class white people will not remain slavishly supporting the ruling class if they see Maori people coming together as a Maori race, and getting concessions from the Government on the basis of that racial identity. There are already great numbers of working-class whites who resent that the ruling class helps Maoris more than them, and who would vote for a white identitarian party if one ever stood up.

Already we can see from the table above that the Labour Party – one of the two major parties – polls a mere 18% among the under 50s. Their support base is Boomer women. Among women under 50, Labour gets less support than the Greens. This suggests that support for Labour will continue to decline as the Boomers die off and get replaced by more alternative young people.

If the Maori contingent among those alternative young people vote for an ethnonationalist party that represents them on identitarian lines, the white contingent will also want that. After all, young working-class whites are getting representation as working-class whites all over Europe.

VJM Publishing has been following the rise of the Sweden Democrats for a long time, and the frustration and sense of injustice that impels young working-class whites in Europe to vote for identitarian parties is shared by young working-class whites in New Zealand. They just don’t have a good option yet.

It’s possible that wealthy whites (along with wealthy Asians, Jews and others) keep supporting National and ACT, which collectively develop into a broad ruling class movement. The Maori Party might keep growing, Labour might keep declining into a Pacific Islander party, and then a new, working-class white party will rise to fill the gap.

Whether this will be a good thing or a bad thing cannot be known in advance.

The real solution to all the problems mentioned here: Kiwi nationalism. A fresh formulation of nationalism which saw young Maoris and young white Kiwis as the yin and the yang of a glorious new civilisation whose best time was yet to come. This would allow young Kiwis to come together in support of a common goal, with a understanding of common heritage, free of the petty bickering that has characterised recent decades in New Zealand.

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The Rise Of Leftist Nationalism In The 21st Century

For all the furore about right-wing nationalists gaining power in recent European elections, some other phenomena have been less noticed. One of those was the fact that women are now turning nationalist in places like France. Another is the rise of left-wing nationalism, something believed by many to be a contradiction in terms.

Because of World War II, right-wing nationalism is the biggest bogeyman in the West today. It’s such a bogeyman that it has soured people’s attitudes to nationalism itself. Right-wing nationalism, we are told, is the greatest evil imaginable, and all social problems have their roots in it somehow.

Right-wing nationalism is very masculine, and can easily be masculine in such a way that it turns many people off (especially women). Heinrich Himmler warned against a particularly aggressive and boorish type of masculine nationalism that drove decent people away. The emphasis on exclusion of outsiders can also turn away sophisticated people. Thus, there are several fair reasons not to like it.

Right-wing politics also tends to have theocratic sympathies, and so tends to want religious-based restrictions on things. The idea of banning abortion, and thereby forcing raped women to carry to term, seems appalling to most, but it’s a common theme in right-wing politics. Cannabis prohibition, likewise, seems like a relic of a bygone age to most people, but not to the religious right, who are happy to keep destroying the lives of cannabis users. The suggestion often made by Kanye West and Nick Fuentes – that non-Christians should be barred from public office – turns a lot of people away.

Leftist nationalism offers most of the same benefits as right-wing nationalism without the paranoia, aggression and control freakery.

Sooner or later, someone in every country is going to realise that a lot of people want nationalism but don’t want authoritarian restrictions on civil liberties or more Jesus rammed down everyone’s throats. These someones will find themselves being the only ones in a very large niche – that of leftist nationalism.

Sahra Wagenknecht’s recently-founded leftist nationalist movement in Germany is an example of what is now becoming possible. Wagenknecht has recognised that working-class Westerners no longer feel represented by the discourse of the left. This has caused them to turn to protest movements.

Because the left is so cosy with the political establishment all over the West, protest movements tend to be right-wing. This has meant that a large number of protest voters in the West have found themselves tied up with unsavoury religious authoritarians and other loonies of the extreme right. The mainstream left has mostly sneered at these people and called them deplorables and racists. Moreover, the political establishment has exhausted its anti-nationalist ammunition by firing it all at the right-wing nationalists. All of this has created great opportunities.

Wagenknecht’s movement is the first of what will be many: 21st Century leftist nationalist movements. Already it is recording 8-9% in some national polls, and almost twice that in some state polls.

Many other Western countries will soon discover that nationalism does not necessarily imply support for right-wing stupidities such as reducing investment in young people, rolling the social development clock back 1,000 years or banning everything.

Neither does it imply support for militarism – Wagenknecht is among Germany’s biggest critics of escalating the war in Ukraine. Leftist nationalism has the same concern for children and vulnerable people as ordinary leftism – it just doesn’t have the globalist concerns for e.g. defeating Russia on the battlefield or for building a worldwide dictatorship of the working class.

In fact, left-wing nationalism can offer many of the same advantages that the leftist establishment can (or used to). Left-wing nationalists understand as well as anyone else that money invested into the first 24 months of any child’s development will pay great dividends to the nation later on, and that such considerations are more important than the endless bleating about tax cuts that characterise right-wing discourse.

The major consequence of the rise of left-wing nationalism will likely be a further normalisation of nationalism. If the presence of left-wing nationalism proves that nationalism doesn’t need to be xenophobic, paranoid, aggressive, nasty etc., then many people will no longer object to it. If it can avoid all of those things and also provide an alternative to globalist economic desolation, then great!

One of the eventual consequences of this rise will be the associated rise of centrist nationalism. Inevitably, as the right-wing nationalists provide an alternative to the right-wing establishment, and the left-wing nationalists likewise, a centrist nationalism will rise in an effort to pull together the other nationalist blocs against the establishment itself.

What the continued rise of left-wing nationalism will mean is a broad challenge to the globalist status quo over the next 20 years.

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How Kieran McAnulty Could Become Prime Minister In 2026

The 2026 New Zealand General Election looks like it’s anyone’s game. Recent polling has suggested that Labour is only a few points behind National now, with the second-tier parties winning 35%+ of the vote collectively. A number of interests could potentially seize power after 2026. But some of them would need to make a move soon.

It’s very hard for a previously deposed Prime Minister to become the Prime Minister again. A previously deposed Prime Minister has the taint of failure about them – people are afraid to back them openly incase of another failure. Therefore, current Labour Leader Chris Hipkins is a losing proposition. This is over and above the fact that Hipkins is about as personally appealing as leftover fish and chips.

The question is not who might replace him. That’s obviously Kieran McAnulty. Kiwis don’t want nice anymore, because we had that with Jacinda Ardern and we all saw how utterly ineffective it was. Smiles don’t build houses. We want a strongman who will get something done.

McAnulty has enjoyed a lot of publicity recently, and the public seem to appreciate his no-nonsense aggression. The stars seems to be aligning for him to take over from the ineffective Hipkins, sooner rather than later. The question is under which platform McAnulty would run under in the 2026 election if he is to beat Chris Luxon (who will presumably run for National as incumbent).

This article makes a few suggestions.

If we look at overseas trends, we can see what’s coming New Zealand’s way in 5-10 years’ time. This has long been the case technologically and culturally, and it’s true politically as well. In other Western countries, two major trends are obvious.

The first is the increase of anti-immigration sentiments. Morgoth wrote on Substack this month that “There’s been a noticeable hardening in rhetoric regarding mass immigration in Britain recently.” This was proven to be a Europe-wide phenomenon in the European Parliament elections a few days later, when nationalist parties surged ahead in comparison to the previous election.

It’s becoming obvious to all Westerners now that the story our rulers sold us – of the cheap labour imports being people just like us who would turn out the same if we spent money on their education and welfare – was a total lie. Although some immigrants make a positive contribition, the vast majority of them are lower IQ than the average white person, and thereby cause similar levels of social carnage as low-IQ whites.

Because New Zealand has run a relatively intelligent points-based immigration system, instead of a brainless refugee resettlement-based one, New Zealanders don’t have the same disdain for immigration that Europeans do – yet. But it’s coming. The Sixth Labour Government doubled the refugee quota, bringing in twice as many Muslims and Africans as before. These Muslims and Africans have, predictably, set about committing the enormous numbers of violent, sexual, and property crimes that they’re infamous for everywhere else. As such, anti-immigration sentiments are rising sharply in New Zealand.

British nationalist Nigel Farage has declared the upcoming British general election an “immigration election”. Farage’s Reform UK party has polled as high as 17% in recent days. If McAnulty was willing to tap into similar nationalist sentiments in New Zealand, he could position himself and Labour to benefit from the coming surge.

The second obvious trend is cannabis law reform. In America by 2022, the number of people who used cannabis daily had increased 15 times since 1992. Now more Americans use cannabis daily or near-daily than use alcohol. This is a cultural change like the transition from newspapers to the Internet. It is seismic.

It’s not just cannabis use that is rising, but also support for cannabis use. Germany legalised cannabis this year, as did Luxembourg the year previous. Slovenia just voted for legal cannabis in a referendum a few days ago. Some 70% of American adults now support legal cannabis, with elderly Christians the last major holdouts. The War on Cannabis is being won by cannabis.

Some argue that Labour cannot run on this because of the failed cannabis referendum in 2020. But Arizona had a cannabis referendum in 2016 that failed with only 48.7% of the vote, and that was followed by another referendum in 2020 that passed with around 60%. Sentiments are shifting so fast in favour of cannabis that, if there was another cannabis referendum in New Zealand today, it might pass with 60% as well.

The statistics from 2020 showed that the majority of pro-cannabis supporters were young and well-educated – precisely the sort of person that New Zealand needs to appeal to in order to maintain economic viability into the future. Cannabis law reform is an open goal. If McAnulty wants to kick it into the net, he needs to campaign in 2026 to legalise cannabis.

If McAnulty would lead Labour into the 2026 General Election on a nationalistic, pro-cannabis ticket – along with all of the usual concerns that Labour stands for – he would ride two extremely powerful waves of popular support currently sweeping the West. This would be Labour’s best chance of making the Sixth National Government a one-term affair.

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The Collapse Of The Electoral Cycle And Its Consequences

Previous VJM Publishing articles have described something known as the electoral cycle. This is the process by which the right wing and the left wing of the ruling class take turns at ruling. In New Zealand, this is usually an 18- or 15-year cycle, and its continuation tends to bring political stability. But it’s starting to break down all over the Western World.

When the National/ACT/NZFirst coalition won the 2023 General Election, the expectation among most was that they would rule for their half of an electoral cycle, i.e. nine years. At the least, they would enjoy an extended honeymoon, as Jacinda Ardern, John Key and Helen Clark all did. The reality has been like a bucket of cold puke to the face.

Because of the electoral cycle, a New Zealand Government winning a second term has been a likelihood, and a third term very possible, ever since the end of World War II. But this can no longer be taken for granted. According to recent polling, the 2026 General Election will be very close. If New Zealand First dips below 5%, Labour would easily win that year.

If they do, the comfortable electoral cycle – which is ultimately based on trust and consensus – will have collapsed. Anyone could realistically fancy their chances for 2029: Labour again, National again, or anyone else.

The implications of an open field are tremendous.

For one thing, it could lead to the coming of a truly anti-Establishment force. Currently, anti-Establishment sentiments are channeled into New Zealand First, or absorbed into fringe movements like NZ Loyal and the ALCP. They don’t actually impact the Establishment or their operations.

If dissident voices felt like they actually had a chance to change things, on account of that the Labournational stranglehold was broken, they could enter the political stage in great numbers, and with great enthusiasm. A charismatic leader, backed by committed and competent people, could hope for 20% or more of the vote, as we have seen alternative movements achieve in some European countries.

For another thing, it will all but certainly lead to the further dissolution of support for mainstream politics. The strongest impetus for alternative politics is the sentiment that the Establishment doesn’t know what it’s doing. The political world is comprised of such sentiments. If (or when) the electoral cycle collapses, it would become widely realised that the masses no longer have much confidence in the Establishment. That would open the emotional floodgates to more support for alternative politics.

The collapse of this typical, conservative-to-social democrat electoral cycle has already been observed in some European countries. This has led directly to the 20%+ support for alternative politics mentioned above. In some cases there are multiple genuine alternatives. This is now the case in Germany, with the Alternative for Germany polling around 18% and the Sahra Wagenknecht movement polliing around 7%.

The ultimate theoretical implications of this collapse vary greatly. The Establishment’s Plan B would be to introduce a technocracy ruled directly by bankers, as they achieved in Italy under Mario Draghi. The intent of this plan would be to forestall the Establishment’s worst nightmare, which is that the people take their power back for themselves. A technocracy would avoid any real change.

Another possibility is a stagnation so deeply entrenched that it can only be overcome by a dictator. Once people stop supporting mainstream politics, many of them will stop supporting democracy. After all, the reasoning goes, if democracy only delivers us a choice between two wings of the Establishment, what good is it? If democracy led us to this, then what value is democracy?

If future polls suggest that Labour has a realistic chance of winning in 2026, then we can officially declare the comfortable post-World War II electoral cycle shattered, and the New Zealand political scene truly open for a change to the consensus – or at least a change to what the Establishment wants.

Where that might lead in practice is really anyone’s guess, but we can draw some reasonable conclusions from the examples of other Western countries, almost all of which share our dissatisfaction with the ruling establishment.

For one, it is likely to lead to a radical change to recent immigration policy. New Zealanders, like most Westerners, followed their mainstream media for decades when it told them that mass immigration would make us all wealthier. Now that the exact opposite has occurred, people are angry about having been lied to. Western rulers will be happy to blame outsiders if they can.

For another, it’s possible that it will lead to radical changes in housing policy. The Anglosphere has a tighter housing supply than other Western countries, which has led to the (intended) result of grossly inflated house prices. This has caused a commensurate amount of dissatisfaction among young people, who would love to redistribute some of the houses the Boomers have hoarded.

For more of VJM’s ideas, see his work on other platforms!
For even more of VJM’s ideas, buy one of his books!

If you enjoyed reading this piece, buy a compilation of our best pieces from previous years!

If you would like to support our work in other ways, make a donation to our Paypal! Even better, buy any one of our books!