Surprisingly for many, TOP went backwards between 2017 and 2020, from 2.4% of the vote (63,261 votes) to 1.5% of the vote (43,449 votes). This was despite the fact that, this time, they had a charming and personable leader in Geoff Simmons.
The major problem facing TOP is that they appear to be a Green Party B team made up of those too weird or too unprofessional to represent a Parliamentary party. As such, they have no real niche.
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 |
| Voting Labour 2020 | 0.33 |
| Voting National 2020 | 0.11 |
| Voting Greens 2020 | 0.84 |
| Voting ACT 2020 | 0.18 |
| Voting New Zealand First 2020 | -0.17 |
| Voting New Conservative 2020 | -0.05 |
| Voting Maori Party 2020 | -0.34 |
| Voting Advance NZ 2020 | -0.36 |
| Voting Sustainable NZ 2020 | 0.32 |
| Voting ALCP 2020 | -0.34 |
| Voting TEA Party 2020 | -0.18 |
| Voting Heartland NZ 2020 | -0.11 |
| Voting Social Credit 2020 | 0.07 |
| Voting NZ Outdoors Party 2020 | -0.08 |
| Voting ONE Party 2020 | -0.07 |
| Voting Vision NZ Party 2020 | -0.38 |
The TOP voting bloc is extremely similar to the Green Party voting bloc. Voting Greens in 2020 and voting TOP in 2020 had a correlation of 0.84. This was much stronger than the correlation between voting for any other party in 2020 and voting TOP in 2020.
As long as this correlation remains so strong, it’s hard to see TOP having much success if they stay on the same path.
Significant positive correlations also existed between voting TOP in 2020 and voting Labour in 2020 (0.33) and voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 (0.32). All these results place TOP firmly among the left.
The strongest negative correlations were between voting TOP in 2020 and voting for one of the parties with many poorly-educated brown supporters. The correlation between voting TOP in 2020 and voting for Vision NZ Party in 2020 was -0.38; with voting for Advance NZ in 2020 it was -0.36; with voting for the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party or Maori Party in 2020 it was -0.34.
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Having no NZQA qualifications | -0.64 | -0.64 |
| Having Level 1 certificate | -0.48 | -0.58 |
| Having Level 2 certificate | -0.44 | -0.53 |
| Having Level 3 certficate | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| Having Level 4 certificate | -0.49 | -0.60 |
| Having Level 5 diploma | -0.61 | -0.71 |
| Having Level 6 diploma | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| Having a bachelor’s degree | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| Having an honours degree | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| Having a master’s degree | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| Having a doctorate | 0.77 | 0.77 |
Two patterns are immediately obvious when looking at the correlations between education levels and voting tendencies.
The first is that the better educated a person is, the more likely they are to vote TOP. All of the correlations between voting TOP in 2020 and having a university degree were stronger than 0.50. At the other end of the spectrum, voting TOP in 2020 was significantly negatively correlated with having no NZQA qualifications, or only a level 1 or 2 certificate.
The second is that TOP shares the above pattern with the Greens, and for similar reasons. In fact, the correlations between having a university degree and voting either TOP or Greens in 2020 are almost identical – and they are identical in the case of having a doctorate and voting either TOP or Greens in 2020 (0.77). The correlations between having no academic qualifications and voting either TOP or Greens in 2020 were also identical (-0.64).
The largest differences here between TOP and Greens are with those at level 3 and those at level 6. TOP is significantly weaker than the Greens among voters at level 3, and significantly stronger than the Greens among voters at level 6. Voters at level 3 are usually at university, having completed high school and moved on. Voters at level 6 have usually completed a tertiary qualification at polytech level.
This suggests that TOP is more polytech in comparison to the Greens’ university, more working-class to the Greens’ middle-class. This revelation might serve to guide future TOP policy.
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Being European | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| Being Maori | -0.42 | -0.27 |
| Being Pacific Islander | -0.37 | -0.19 |
| Being Asian | 0.06 | 0.12 |
TOP is a much whiter party than the Greens. The correlation between being of European descent and voting Greens in 2020 was not significant, but the correlation between being of European descent and voting TOP in 2020 was 0.41.
Maoris and Pacific Islanders, for their part, were both much less likely to vote TOP in 2020 than to vote Greens in 2020. There was a significant negative correlation between being either Maori or Pacific Islander and voting TOP in 2020. This may be because both groups feel like they are already well-represented by the Labour Party. Asians were almost perfectly indifferent to TOP.
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Median age | -0.15 | -0.24 |
| Mean age | -0.05 | -0.14 |
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Aged 20-24 years | 0.39 | 0.56 |
| Aged 25-29 years | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| Aged 30-34 years | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| Aged 35-39 years | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Aged 40-44 years | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| Aged 45-49 years | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| Aged 50-54 years | 0.09 | -0.02 |
| Aged 55-59 years | 0.01 | -0.13 |
| Aged 60-64 years | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| Aged 65-69 years | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| Aged 70-74 years | 0.02 | -0.16 |
| Aged 75-79 years | 0.04 | -0.17 |
| Aged 80-84 years | 0.09 | -0.15 |
| Aged 85+ years | 0.22 | -0.04 |
TOP voters are older than Greens voters in general, especially in the upper age brackets. Although the correlation between voting TOP in 2020 and median age is negative (-0.15), it isn’t significantly negative, as it is between voting Greens in 2020 and median age (-0.24). The correlation between voting TOP in 2020 and mean age (-0.05) is also weaker than the correlation between voting Greens in 2020 and mean age (-0.14).
The main difference is that TOP voters are more equally represented across all age brackets. There are significant positive correlations between voting TOP in 2020 and being in any age bracket under 35, but the correlations between voting Greens in 2020 and being in any of those age brackets are all stronger.
By contrast, the correlations between voting TOP in 2020 and belonging to any age bracket above 69 were all positive (if not significant). These correlations were all negative for voting Greens in 2020. The overall difference in support for TOP and Greens between the various age brackets is probably because TOP has a heavier online presence, especially a FaceBook presence (which appeals to old people), while the Greens have a heavier presence at universities.
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Percent of electorate female | 0.24 | 0.16 |
Both TOP and the Greens are movements that appeal to the socially conscious, and women tend to be a lot more socially conscious than men. Both TOP and Greens also get a lot of votes from universities, where there are more women than men. These factors explain why both TOP and the Greens get more female voters than male ones.
Curiously, the correlation between voting TOP in 2020 and being female (0.24) was stronger than the correlation between voting Greens and being female (0.16). This is probably because a majority of elderly people in New Zealand are female, and a higher proportion of elderly voters vote TOP compared to the Greens.
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Having no children | 0.57 | 0.75 |
| Having one child | -0.19 | -0.15 |
| Having two children | -0.04 | -0.30 |
| Having three children | -0.31 | -0.53 |
| Having four children | -0.55 | -0.61 |
| Having five children | -0.65 | -0.56 |
| Having six or more children | -0.63 | -0.48 |
The correlation between having no children and voting Greens in 2020 (0.75) was much stronger than the correlation between having no children and voting TOP in 2020 (0.57), which speaks to the extent which TOP voters are closer to the demographic average than Greens voters.
When it comes to having children, TOP voters are more normal than Greens voters, in the sense that the correlation between voting TOP in 2020 and having two children (-0.04) was much closer to neutral than the correlation between voting Greens in 2020 and having two children (-0.30). This was also notably true when it comes to voting TOP in 2020 and having three children (-0.31) when compared to voting Greens in 2020 and having three children (-0.53).
These differences are probably mostly caused by the fact that TOP voters tend to be older than Greens voters, and so have had more time to have children (both TOP and Greens are very strong among university students, who are mostly too young to have had children).
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Working as a manager | 0.05 | -0.04 |
| Working as a professional | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| Working as a technician or trades worker | -0.34 | -0.50 |
| Working as a community or personal services worker | -0.10 | -0.03 |
| Working as a clerical or administrative worker | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Working as a sales worker | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| Working as a machinery operator or driver | -0.67 | -0.58 |
| Working as a labourer | -0.52 | -0.48 |
All of this suggests that TOP voters are generally less exceptional and more representative of the mainstream than Greens voters. This is despite that the correlation between working as a professional and voting TOP in 2020 (0.73) is barely different to the correlation between working as a professional and voting Green in 2020 (0.75).
So the truth is that TOP voters aren’t any less intelligent or competent than Greens voters, but they are more representative of ordinary people. Unsurprisingly, then, there is no significant correlation between being foreign-born and voting for TOP in 2020 (0.19) when there is a significant correlation between being foreign-born and voting Greens in 2020 (0.24).
Also like the Greens, TOP finds itself in the difficult position of claiming to be a left-wing party in favour of social change, but at the same time getting little support from working-class occupations. The correlations between voting TOP in 2020 and working as a machinery operator or driver (-0.67) or working as a labourer (-0.52) were both strongly negative.
This is the core problem TOP faces: its message is fundamentally a left-wing one, based on a supposed will to redistibute resources to the working class, but its representatives are not themselves from that class. As a consequence, actual working-class people don’t see themselves represented by TOP candidates.
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Own house in family trust | 0.23 | 0.05 |
| Own or part own house | 0.05 | -0.19 |
| Don’t own house | -0.12 | 0.14 |
The most surprising correlation is between owning or part-owning a house and voting TOP in 2020 – this was 0.05, much more positive than the -0.19 between owning or part-owning a house and voting Greens in 2020. This is mostly a function of the fact that TOP voters are significantly older than Greens voters, because homeownership rates increase sharply as age increases.
It’s also a function of another correlation that will surprise many – the negative correlation of -0.15 between living on the North Island and voting TOP in 2020. It’s easier to own a home on the South Island because houses are cheaper, but, despite that the housing crisis is not as desperate there, South Islanders are more willing to vote TOP. This suggests that many TOP voters cast their vote out of concern for the national housing situation, and not out of mere self-interest.
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Living in an urban electorate | 0.28 | 0.30 |
Some might think that the differences in homeownership rates could be explained by a rural bias on the part of TOP voters. After all, the Greens are known to be a highly urban party and urban dwellers are much less likely to own their own homes.
However, TOP voters and Green voters are almost identical when it comes to the proportion of them who live in an urban electorate. Therefore, it’s more likely that the differences in homeownership rates are a function of the greater age of TOP voters.
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Income less than $5,000 | -0.22 | -0.01 |
| Income between $5,000 and $10,000 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
| Income between $10,000 and $20,000 | -0.42 | -0.37 |
| Income between $20,000 and $30,000 | -0.26 | -0.37 |
| Income between $30,000 and $50,000 | -0.43 | -0.52 |
| Income between $50,000 and $70,000 | 0.12 | -0.04 |
| Income greater than $70,000 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
If the biggest problem faced by the Greens is that they are full of middle-class people claiming to represent the working class, TOP has that same problem, only bigger.
Both TOP and the Greens do very poorly among working-class Kiwis. All of the correlations between voting TOP in 2020 and being in an income band between $10,000 and $50,000 were significantly negative. The most strongly negative correlation between voting TOP in 2020 and being in any income band was -0.43, with the $30,000-$50,000 band, where minimum wage workers working 35-40 hour weeks will be.
On the other hand, there was a correlation of 0.56 between voting TOP in 2020 and having an income of $70,000 or more. This was even higher than the 0.52 between voting Greens in 2020 and having such an income. This means that TOP voters are disproportionately highly-educated professionals.
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Receiving NZ Super or Veteran’s Pension | 0.01 | -0.20 |
| Receiving Jobseeker Support | -0.45 | -0.27 |
| Receiving Sole Parent Support | -0.47 | -0.31 |
| Receiving Supported Living Payment | -0.11 | -0.06 |
| Receiving Student Allowance | 0.43 | 0.54 |
TOP gets many of its votes from university students: the correlation between voting TOP in 2020 and receiving a Student Allowance was 0.43, much stronger than for any other benefit type. The correlation between voting Greens in 2020 and receiving a Student Allowance was notably stronger, at 0.54.
A higher proportion of TOP voters were pensioners, though, in comparison to the Greens. The correlation between receiving NZ Super or a Veteran’s Pension and voting TOP in 2020 was 0.01, in comparison to -0.20 with voting Greens in 2020. This reflects the fact that the correlations between being in any age bracket above 70 years old and voting TOP in 2020 were all positive, but the same correlations with voting Greens in 2020 were all negative.
| Variable | Voting TOP 2020 | Voting Greens 2020 |
| Not religious | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| Is a Buddhist | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Is a Christian | -0.31 | -0.39 |
| Is a Hindu | -0.05 | 0.09 |
| Is a Jew | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| Is a Muslim | -0.04 | 0.10 |
| Is a follower of the Maori religions | -0.45 | -0.30 |
| Is a Spiritualist or New Ager | 0.31 | 0.34 |
TOP voters are so similar to Greens voters that similarities remain even when you divide them both into religions.
The greatest difference between voting TOP in 2020 and voting Greens in 2020 was with followers of the Maori religions (-0.45 and -0.30, respectively). This is a small difference and can be easily explained by the fact that TOP and Greens voters tend to be from enfranchised classes and followers of Maori religions tend to be from disenfranchised classes.
The differences between voting TOP in 2020 and voting Greens in 2020 was even less when it came to followers of other religions.
The strongest positive correlations between voting TOP in 2020 and religious category were with Jews (0.46), people with no religion (0.38) and Spiritualists and New Agers (0.31). The first two can be easily explained by the strong correlations between being in those categories and working as a professional. Spiritualists and New Agers might choose TOP because they consider them the closest thing to a revolutionary party that might usher in a new age.
In summary, TOP voters are similar to Greens voters, only older, whiter, wealthier, more female and generally more mainstream.
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This article is an excerpt from the upcoming 3rd Edition of Understanding New Zealand, by Dan McGlashan and published by VJM Publishing. Understanding New Zealand is the comprehensive guide to the demographics and voting patterns of the New Zealand people.
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