Vernon Tava’s Sustainable NZ party made a transparent attempt to target the center of the political spectrum. The logic was that they would be an environmentalist movement that wasn’t tarnished by the social justice obsession of the Greens. In the end, they received 1,880 votes, which amounted to less than 0.1% of the total.
| Variable | Voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 |
| Voting ACT in 2020 | 0.54 |
| Voting National in 2020 | 0.50 |
| Voting Greens in 2020 | 0.26 |
| Voting New Conservative in 2020 | 0.37 |
| Voting The Opportunities Party in 2020 | 0.32 |
| Voting Labour in 2020 | 0.02 |
| Voting Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party in 2020 | -0.41 |
| Voting Maori Party in 2020 | -0.46 |
Sustainable NZ may not have won many votes, but they succeeded in positioning themselves somewhere between the National Party and the Green Party. The correlation between voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 and voting National in 2020 was 0.50, and with voting Greens in 2020 it was 0.26. Both are significantly positive.
The correlation between voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 and voting Labour in 2020 was not significant, at 0.02. This suggests that Sustainable NZ was successful in avoiding the label of ‘left-wing’. In fact, there was even a correlation of 0.37 between voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 and voting New Conservative in 2020.
The strongest negative correlations with voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 were with voting for the parties representing disadvantaged demographics, such as the ALCP (-0.41) and the Maori Party (-0.46).
| Variable | Voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 |
| < $5,000 | -0.17 |
| $5,000-$10,000 | -0.11 |
| $10,000-$20,000 | -0.37 |
| $20,000-$30,000 | -0.18 |
| $30,000-$50,000 | -0.32 |
| $50,000-$70,000 | 0.23 |
| $70,000+ | 0.44 |
The general rule is: the wealthier the voter, the more likely they were to vote Sustainable NZ in 2020. The reason for this, as it is for the Greens and The Opportunities Party, is that environmental issues are high up Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, and people suffering from housing or income insecurity will vote on the basis of that instead.
The strongest support of any income bracket for Sustainable NZ came from the $70,000+ bracket. The correlation between voting for Sustainable NZ in 2020 and having a personal income of over $70,000 was 0.44. This is a curious result, given that votes for alternative parties are normally cast by disenfranchised people, and disenfranchised people normally vote for left-wing parties. This paradox may explain why Sustainable NZ got so few votes.
The financially disenfranchised avoided voting for Sustainable NZ. The correlation between having an income between $10,000 and $20,000 and voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 was -0.37.
| Variable | Voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 |
| No qualifications | -0.46 |
| Level 1 certificate | -0.22 |
| Level 2 certificate | -0.31 |
| Level 3 certificate | -0.24 |
| Level 4 certifiate | -0.30 |
| Level 5 diploma | -0.20 |
| Level 6 diploma | 0.55 |
| Bachelor’s degree | 0.36 |
| Honours degree | 0.40 |
| Master’s degree | 0.34 |
| Doctorate | 0.34 |
As with the Greens, ACT and The Opportunities Party, highly educated voters were more likely to vote Sustainable NZ than poorly educated ones. There was a significant positive correlation between voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 and having any of the university degrees. On the other hand, there was a correlation of -0.46 between voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 and having no academic qualifications.
Unlike the Greens, the correlation between voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 and having a highest educational qualification of a level 3 certificate was significantly negative. This reflects the fact that the Greens have broad appeal among university students, a niche that Sustainable NZ were unable to gain entry to.
From these three sets of correlations, we can see that Sustainable NZ voters were considerably more privileged than the average voter.
| Variable | Voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 |
| No children | 0.19 |
| One child | -0.02 |
| Two children | 0.39 |
| Three children | -0.05 |
| Four children | -0.46 |
| Five children | -0.62 |
| Six children | -0.64 |
Sustainable NZ voters walked the talk when it comes to the sustainability of their breeding. The strongest correlation between voting for Sustainable NZ in 2020 and having any number of children was two (0.39). There was also a positive correlation of 0.19 between voting for Sustainable NZ in 2020 and having no children.
On the other hand, there were significant negative correlations between voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 and having four, five or six children. All three of these correlations were at least as negative as -0.46. Sustainable NZ voters are clearly aware that having more than two children is unsustainable.
| Variable | Voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 |
| Working as a manager | 0.45 |
| Working as a professional | 0.31 |
| Working as a machinery operator or driver | -0.52 |
| Working as a labourer | -0.45 |
A curious outcome of the election is that there was a significant positive correlation between voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 and both working as a manager and working as a professional. Working as a manager and working as a professional are the archetypal occupations of National and the Greens, respectively.
The working-class occupations, by contrast, were relatively less likely to vote Sustainable NZ in 2020. As mentioned above, people who are worried about housing affordability generally consider environmentalism to be a luxury concern.
In summary, Vernon Tava and his Sustainable NZ movement were successful in positioning themselves in the “blue-green” space that appeals to educated, long-sighted people, whether managers or professionals. The problem is that they failed in the much more important objective of obtaining enough votes to threaten the 5% threshold.
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This article is an excerpt from the upcoming 3rd Edition of Understanding New Zealand, by Dan McGlashan and published by VJM Publishing. Understanding New Zealand is the comprehensive guide to the demographics and voting patterns of the New Zealand people.
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