Understanding New Zealand 3: Who Voted National In 2020

The 2020 General Election was a disaster for National. Their vote count collapsed from 1,152,075 (44.4%) to 738,275 (25.6%). This catastrophic result saw National with no chance of negotiating their way into government.

National lost voters in two major directions. Not only did they lose votes to their fellow right-wing party ACT, but they also lost votes across the centre to Labour.

Variable	Voting National 2020	Voting National 2017
Age 20-24	-0.48	-0.35*
Age 25-29	-0.39	-0.35*
Age 30-34	-0.25	0.20**
Age 35-39	-0.04	0.20**
Age 40-44	0.22	0.20**
Age 45-49	0.58	0.20**
Age 50-54	0.69	0.71***
Age 55-59	0.67	0.71***
Age 60-64	0.70	0.71***
Age 65-69	0.67	0.62****
Age 70-74	0.68	0.62****
Age 75-79	0.69	0.62****
Age 80-84	0.66	0.62****
Age 85+	0.63	0.62****

Although National never got many votes from young people (the correlation between voting National in 2017 and being aged 20-29 was significantly negative), they got even fewer in 2020. Young New Zealand voters followed the general trend of drifting away from conservative parties between 2017 and 2020.

One pattern here is very striking: support for National rises as age rises, up until the 50-54 year old age bracket, at which point it levels off. National support increases the most quickly between ages 30-45, because this is the age in which the largest number make the transition from renter to homeowner, and therefore from a victim of the Establishment to a beneficiary of it.

People in the age brackets where homeownership is very high, i.e. those aged 50 or above, are solidly National supporters. The correlation between voting National in 2020 and owning one’s own home in a family trust was 0.81, and with owning or part owning one’s own home outright it was 0.56. The correlation between voting National in 2020 and neither owning one’s home in a family trust nor outright was -0.75.

The reason for this is obvious: National is more interested in taxing labour than capital, so those who own a lot of capital vote National out of self-interest. The New Zealand homeowner can rest assured that the National Party will never impose a capital gains tax nor a land tax. They are very much the representatives of accumulated capital.

The ongoing and worsening housing crisis is probably the foremost reason that National lost many younger voters, but maintained their position among the middle-aged. After all, the more arduous and difficult it is for a young person to get into a house, the more cruisy and luxurious life is for those who own the houses.

Variable	Voting National 2020	Voting National 2017
European	0.53	0.52
Maori	-0.65	-0.74
Pacific Islander	-0.46	-0.39
Asian	0.07	0.16

If National is the party of the Establishment, then they predictably get a lot of votes from white people. In 2020, the correlation between voting National and being of European descent was 0.53. This is strong enough to suggest that the vast majority of National support comes from white people.

Support for National sank noticeably among Pacific Islanders and Asians, however. Asians are almost completely indifferent to National, and Pacific Islanders now dislike National almost as much as Maoris do. It’s possible that National becomes more and more a white person’s party over time.

The Pacific Island voting bloc is an interesting one, because they are torn between voting Labour for economic reasons and voting National for religious reasons. Few appreciate how hotly contested this bloc is. This contention is probably why Labour does not come out in support of cannabis law reform.

Variable	Voting National 2020	Voting National 2017
Loss or Nil Income	-0.45*	-0.51
Personal Income $1-$5,000	-0.45*	-0.58
Personal Income $5,001-$10,000	-0.57	-0.71
Personal Income $10,001-$15,000	-0.29**	-0.48
Personal Income $15,001-$20,000	-0.29**	-0.19
Personal Income $20,001-$25,000	0.07***	-0.16
Personal Income $25,001-$30,000	0.07***	-0.33
Personal Income $30,001-$35,000	-0.15****	-0.36
Personal Income $35,001-$40,000	-0.15****	-0.42
Personal Income $40,001-$50,000	-0.15****	-0.25
Personal Income $50,001-$60,000	0.32*****	-0.01
Personal Income $60,001-$70,000	0.32*****	0.21
Personal Income $70,001-$100,000	0.41******	0.32
Personal Income $100,001-$150,000	0.41******	0.30
Personal Income $150,000+	0.41******	0.30

The National Party isn’t just the party of those holding wealth, it’s also the party of those earning it. There were significant correlations between voting National in 2020 and having a personal income of over $50,000 per year. The correlation between voting National in 2020 and having a personal income of over $70,000 was 0.41.

Beneficiaries and people in that income range are extremely disinclined to vote National. This is because of the perception, earned during the Bolger and Key Governments, that National is cruel towards non-pensioner beneficiaries. The correlation between voting National in 2020 and having a personal income between $10,001 and $20,000 (i.e. in the non-pensioner beneficiary range) was significantly negative, at -0.29.

The correlations between voting National in 2020 and having a personal income in the pensioner range – between $20,001 and $30,000 per year – were positive. This reflects two things: that National are much more generous towards pensioners than towards other beneficiaries, and that pensioners tend to be more conservative than younger voters, who tend to have less to lose from the status quo.

However, the correlations between being wealthy and voting National were not as strong as the correlations between being old and voting National, and the correlation between earning over $70,000 and voting for a party was stronger for the Greens (0.52) than it was for National. This speaks to the degree to which votes for National are often cast for reasons of social conservatism and not just wealth.

Variable	National Vote 2020	National Vote 2017
No religion	0.16	0.02
Buddhism	0.12	0.20
Christianity	0.10	0.33
Hinduism	-0.14	-0.06
Islam	-0.19	-0.10
Judaism	0.17	0.20
Spiritualism and New Age	-0.16	-0.30

On the subject of social conservatism, this has traditionally been where National got a lot of its voters. Christians are generally happy to have homosexuals, prostitutes and cannabis users locked up in prison for moral reasons, and to that end they tend to vote National.

In 2017, the correlation between voting National and being Christian was 0.33. But by 2020 this had fallen to 0.10. Support for National also fell between 2017 and 2020 among Buddhists (0.20 to 0.12), Hindus (-0.06 to -0.14) and Muslims (-0.10 to -0.19). These voters probably didn’t switch because of moral reasons, but because of the poor example National set with their multiple changes of leadership.

Some might be surprised that Jewish support for National is not higher, given that National recently had a Jewish Prime Minister, and that Jews are by far the most economically privileged demographic in New Zealand. The fact is that Jews are so economically privileged that they are more likely to vote ACT than National.

Spiritualists and New Agers tend not to vote National because they see National as the party of materialism and consumerism. The correlation between voting National in 2020 and being a Spiritualist or New Ager was not significant in 2020, while it was significantly negative in 2017.

The positive (if not significant) correlation between voting National in 2020 or 2017 and having no religion might surprise some, given the existing association between National and Christianity.

Variable	Voting National 2020	Voting National 2017
Voting Labour same year	-0.16	-0.94
Voting Greens same year	-0.16	-0.25
Voting ACT same year	0.92	0.61
Voting New Zealand First same year	0.07	0.04
Voting New Conservative same year	0.68	0.45
Voting The Opportunities Party same year	0.11	-0.20
Voting Maori Party same year	-0.71	-0.76
Voting Advance NZ same year	-0.13	n/a
Voting Sustainable NZ same year	0.50	n/a
Voting ALCP same year	-0.60	-0.70
Voting TEA Party same year	0.21	n/a
Voting Heartland NZ same year	0.13	n/a
Voting Social Credit same year	0.19	n/a
Voting NZ Outdoors Party same year	0.20	n/a
Voting ONE Party same year	-0.17	n/a
Voting Vision NZ Party same year	-0.60	n/a

In 2017 National and Labour were heavily polarised, and appealed to very different demographics. The correlation between voting National in 2017 and voting Labour in 2017 was -0.94, suggesting that there was very little overlap between the two voting blocs.

By 2020, the correlation between voting National and voting Labour was -0.16. This was because so many elderly, rich, white, Christian voters switched to Labour that there was no longer any significant difference between the voters of the two parties. National was still older, richer, whiter – but not by anywhere near as much.

So many old, rich, white people abandoned National for ACT in 2020 that the correlation between voting for either party in 2020 was 0.92. In 2017 this correlation was only 0.61.

There were also strong correlations between voting National in 2020 and voting New Conservative in 2020 (0.68) or voting Sustainable NZ in 2020 (0.50).

Significant negative correlations existed between voting National in 2020 and voting Maori Party in 2020 (-0.71), voting Vision NZ in 2020 or voting Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party in 2020 (both -0.60). These parties have a young, poor and brown demographic and are therefore different to the National-voting demographic in several major ways.

None of the correlations between voting National in 2020 and voting for the other parties in 2020 were significant, which speaks to the degree that National is a middle-of-the-road party with broad-based appeal. Most demographics can appreciate the basic National Party appeal of an orderly society, and so National will always have some amount of support even among traditionally disadvantaged demographics.

Variable	Voting National 2020	Voting National 2017
Percentage of males	-0.02	0.33

Perhaps most emblematic of National’s failure in 2020 was the collapse in the male vote from 2017.

Conservative parties all around the world can count on a significantly higher level of support among males than females. This is because men, on average, control a significantly higher proportion of both income and wealth. As such, they are inclined against voting for parties that want to tax income and redistribute wealth, i.e. against the social democratic parties.

That there was a negative correlation between being male and voting National in 2020 reflects how incompetent National appeared between 2017 and 2020. In 2017, the correlation between being male and voting National was significantly positive, at 0.33. By 2020 this advantage had been completely lost.

Variable	Voting National 2020	Voting National 2017
No qualifications	-0.22	-0.41
Level 1 certificate	0.04	-0.16
Level 2 certificate	-0.13	-0.22
Level 3 certificate	-0.68	-0.24*
Level 4 certificate	-0.05	-0.24*
Level 5 diploma	0.01	0.75**
Level 6 diploma	0.80	0.75**
Bachelor’s degree	0.16	0.22
Honours degree	0.20	0.16
Master’s degree	0.11	0.16
Doctorate	0.07	0.13

National likes to present itself as the party of the elite, which they are in a limited sense. However, their eliteness is mostly limited to wealth, and not education.

There were no significant positive correlations between voting National in 2020 and having any of the university degrees. The closest was between voting National in 2020 and having an Honours degree, at 0.20.

This finding might surprise those who are used to thinking of National voters as the natural intellectual elites. National voters are the natural ruling class, because they’re the ones that inherit money and connections, and the ruling class are those who inherit money and connections, not the most intelligent.

The best-educated people, in fact, tend to vote ACT (if male) and Greens (if female).

The correlations between having a Bachelor’s, Master’s or doctorate degree and voting National in 2020 all weakened from 2017. To lose these demographics is to lose the true elite, those who are distinguished by their intellectual contribution to the culture. It’s also to lose the most reasonable people in the centre.

Variable	Voting National 2020
Own house in family trust	0.81
Own or part-own house	0.56
Neither ownership nor family trust	-0.75

As some could guess from their opposition to restrictions on landlords, National is very much the landlords’ party. It’s not surprising, then, that there was an extremely strong correlation between owning a house in a family trust and voting National in 2020. 0.81 is one of the strongest of all correlations between any demographic variable and voting National in 2020.

If people owning a house in a family trust can be considered the upper-middle class, those who own or part-own a house outright might be considered the middle-middle class. There was a correlation of 0.56 between being in this category and voting National in 2020. Landowners, then, are the core National Party demographic.

If society can be crudely divided into the owners and the owned, those who have to labour to pay rent are the owned. The difference between being a feudal-era serf and having to work 15-20 hours a week to pay rent is not obvious to the person doing the work. Few people in this category want to maintain the status quo.

As such, those who don’t own property are extremely unlikely to vote National. There was a correlation of -0.75 between neither owning property outright nor in a family trust and voting National in 2020.

Variable	Voting National 2020
Income from wage or salary	-0.47
Income from self-employment or own business	0.74
Income from interest, dividends, rents or other investments	0.71

If National are the party of ownership, it would follow that their supporters tend to make money from owning things. Indeed, the correlation between receiving an income from interest, dividends, rents or other investments and voting National in 2002 was 0.71.

Receiving an income from a wage or salary had a correlation of -0.47 with voting National in 2020. Unfortunately this category was not separated into income from a wage and income from a salary, because this would have given us some very useful information. In any case, it’s clear that those who have to work don’t like to vote National and those who don’t have to work do like to vote National.

Receiving an income from self-employment or one’s own business and voting National in 2020 had a correlation of 0.74. Unfortunately, also, this category was not separated into income from self-employment and income from passively owning a business. Many self-employed are tradesmen and would vote Labour because of working-class sentiments, so those who own their own business must be among the strongest National supporters of all.

Variable	Voting National 2020
Managers	0.78
Professionals	0.09
Technicians and Trades Workers	0.05
Community and Personal Service Workers	-0.61
Clerical and Administrative Workers	-0.01
Sales Workers	-0.18
Machinery Operators and Drivers	-0.43
Labourers	-0.29

That National is the party of those with power, and not so much the party of those with brains, is further underlined by looking at which professions voted for them in 2020.

The occupation with the strongest support for National, by far, were managers. Being a manager had a correlation of 0.78 with voting for National in 2020. If you have people underneath you who you need to manage, National is your party. This is because of previous pro-employer National measures, such as the Employment Contracts Act.

The correlation between being a professional and voting National in 2020 (0.09) was barely strongly than the correlation between being a technician or trades worker and voting National in 2020 (0.05). This demonstrates the degree to which National doesn’t appeal to those running the country, just to those owning it.

Community and personal service workers were the occupation with the strongest negative correlation with voting National in 2020 (-0.61). This is mostly because this is an occupation that requires high levels of empathy, and National has been known for cruelty ever since the welfare reforms of the Third National Government (a.k.a. Ruthanasia).

Traditional working-class occupations were significantly negatively correlated with voting National in 2020. This was true of both labourers (-0.29) and machinery operators and drivers (-0.43). As with other demographics, this can be readily explained by the fact that National prefers to tax income than wealth, which disadvantages those in working-class occupations.

*

This article is an excerpt from the upcoming 3rd Edition of Understanding New Zealand, by Dan McGlashan and published by VJM Publishing. Understanding New Zealand is the comprehensive guide to the demographics and voting patterns of the New Zealand people.

*

If you enjoyed reading this essay, you can get a compilation of the Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2019 from Amazon for Kindle or Amazon for CreateSpace (for international readers), or TradeMe (for Kiwis). A compilation of the Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2018 and the Best VJMP Essays and Articles of 2017 are also available.

*

If you would like to support our work in other ways, please consider subscribing to our SubscribeStar fund. Even better, buy any one of our books!