The 2026 New Zealand General Election looks like it’s anyone’s game. Recent polling has suggested that Labour is only a few points behind National now, with the second-tier parties winning 35%+ of the vote collectively. A number of interests could potentially seize power after 2026. But some of them would need to make a move soon.
It’s very hard for a previously deposed Prime Minister to become the Prime Minister again. A previously deposed Prime Minister has the taint of failure about them – people are afraid to back them openly incase of another failure. Therefore, current Labour Leader Chris Hipkins is a losing proposition. This is over and above the fact that Hipkins is about as personally appealing as leftover fish and chips.
The question is not who might replace him. That’s obviously Kieran McAnulty. Kiwis don’t want nice anymore, because we had that with Jacinda Ardern and we all saw how utterly ineffective it was. Smiles don’t build houses. We want a strongman who will get something done.
McAnulty has enjoyed a lot of publicity recently, and the public seem to appreciate his no-nonsense aggression. The stars seems to be aligning for him to take over from the ineffective Hipkins, sooner rather than later. The question is under which platform McAnulty would run under in the 2026 election if he is to beat Chris Luxon (who will presumably run for National as incumbent).
This article makes a few suggestions.
If we look at overseas trends, we can see what’s coming New Zealand’s way in 5-10 years’ time. This has long been the case technologically and culturally, and it’s true politically as well. In other Western countries, two major trends are obvious.
The first is the increase of anti-immigration sentiments. Morgoth wrote on Substack this month that “There’s been a noticeable hardening in rhetoric regarding mass immigration in Britain recently.” This was proven to be a Europe-wide phenomenon in the European Parliament elections a few days later, when nationalist parties surged ahead in comparison to the previous election.
It’s becoming obvious to all Westerners now that the story our rulers sold us – of the cheap labour imports being people just like us who would turn out the same if we spent money on their education and welfare – was a total lie. Although some immigrants make a positive contribition, the vast majority of them are lower IQ than the average white person, and thereby cause similar levels of social carnage as low-IQ whites.
Because New Zealand has run a relatively intelligent points-based immigration system, instead of a brainless refugee resettlement-based one, New Zealanders don’t have the same disdain for immigration that Europeans do – yet. But it’s coming. The Sixth Labour Government doubled the refugee quota, bringing in twice as many Muslims and Africans as before. These Muslims and Africans have, predictably, set about committing the enormous numbers of violent, sexual, and property crimes that they’re infamous for everywhere else. As such, anti-immigration sentiments are rising sharply in New Zealand.
British nationalist Nigel Farage has declared the upcoming British general election an “immigration election”. Farage’s Reform UK party has polled as high as 17% in recent days. If McAnulty was willing to tap into similar nationalist sentiments in New Zealand, he could position himself and Labour to benefit from the coming surge.
The second obvious trend is cannabis law reform. In America by 2022, the number of people who used cannabis daily had increased 15 times since 1992. Now more Americans use cannabis daily or near-daily than use alcohol. This is a cultural change like the transition from newspapers to the Internet. It is seismic.
It’s not just cannabis use that is rising, but also support for cannabis use. Germany legalised cannabis this year, as did Luxembourg the year previous. Slovenia just voted for legal cannabis in a referendum a few days ago. Some 70% of American adults now support legal cannabis, with elderly Christians the last major holdouts. The War on Cannabis is being won by cannabis.
Some argue that Labour cannot run on this because of the failed cannabis referendum in 2020. But Arizona had a cannabis referendum in 2016 that failed with only 48.7% of the vote, and that was followed by another referendum in 2020 that passed with around 60%. Sentiments are shifting so fast in favour of cannabis that, if there was another cannabis referendum in New Zealand today, it might pass with 60% as well.
The statistics from 2020 showed that the majority of pro-cannabis supporters were young and well-educated – precisely the sort of person that New Zealand needs to appeal to in order to maintain economic viability into the future. Cannabis law reform is an open goal. If McAnulty wants to kick it into the net, he needs to campaign in 2026 to legalise cannabis.
If McAnulty would lead Labour into the 2026 General Election on a nationalistic, pro-cannabis ticket – along with all of the usual concerns that Labour stands for – he would ride two extremely powerful waves of popular support currently sweeping the West. This would be Labour’s best chance of making the Sixth National Government a one-term affair.
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